Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan at 80% implied probability to win the Democratic Senate primary on August 11, propelled by retiring Sen. Tina Smith's pivotal February endorsement over Rep. Angie Craig, a PPP poll from mid-February showing Flanagan ahead 52%-22%, and progressive backlash against Craig's support for ICE raids in Operation Metro Surge and the Laken Riley Act. AG Keith Ellison's March 31 backing further solidified Flanagan's DFL establishment support ahead of the state convention May 29-31 in Rochester. Craig's fundraising superiority provides a potential pivot, but recent polling trends and party dynamics underpin Flanagan's frontrunner status in this open seat contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeggy Flanagan 80%
Angie Craig 17%
Keith Ellison 1.3%
Melisa Hortman <1%
$37,813 Vol.
$37,813 Vol.
Peggy Flanagan
80%
Angie Craig
17%
Keith Ellison
1%
Melisa Hortman
1%
Betty McCollum
1%
Ilhan Omar
1%
Melisa López Franzen
1%
Steve Simon
1%
David Wellstone
1%
Jacob Frey
<1%
Peggy Flanagan 80%
Angie Craig 17%
Keith Ellison 1.3%
Melisa Hortman <1%
$37,813 Vol.
$37,813 Vol.
Peggy Flanagan
80%
Angie Craig
17%
Keith Ellison
1%
Melisa Hortman
1%
Betty McCollum
1%
Ilhan Omar
1%
Melisa López Franzen
1%
Steve Simon
1%
David Wellstone
1%
Jacob Frey
<1%
If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 3:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan at 80% implied probability to win the Democratic Senate primary on August 11, propelled by retiring Sen. Tina Smith's pivotal February endorsement over Rep. Angie Craig, a PPP poll from mid-February showing Flanagan ahead 52%-22%, and progressive backlash against Craig's support for ICE raids in Operation Metro Surge and the Laken Riley Act. AG Keith Ellison's March 31 backing further solidified Flanagan's DFL establishment support ahead of the state convention May 29-31 in Rochester. Craig's fundraising superiority provides a potential pivot, but recent polling trends and party dynamics underpin Flanagan's frontrunner status in this open seat contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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