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Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Mallory McMorrow 58%

Abdul El-Sayed 31%

Haley Stevens 12%

Dana Nessel <1%

Polymarket

$404,125 Vol.

Mallory McMorrow 58%

Abdul El-Sayed 31%

Haley Stevens 12%

Dana Nessel <1%

Polymarket

$404,125 Vol.

Mallory McMorrow

$31,372 Vol.

58%

Abdul El-Sayed

$85,980 Vol.

31%

Haley Stevens

$21,914 Vol.

12%

Dana Nessel

$19,733 Vol.

<1%

Rashida Tlaib

$36,225 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Anthony

$17,599 Vol.

<1%

Andy Levin

$20,074 Vol.

<1%

Matt Sahr

$59,283 Vol.

<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet

$111,945 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In the open Michigan Democratic Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, trader consensus favors state Sen. Mallory McMorrow at 58.5% implied probability, driven by her recent polling surge—including a March internal showing her at 30% versus Abdul El-Sayed's 25% and Rep. Haley Stevens' 23%—and dominant ActBlue fundraising with over $1.2 million and 55,000 donations year-to-date. El-Sayed holds steady at 31% amid progressive appeal but faces backlash over a planned April rally with controversial streamer Hasan Piker, while Stevens slips to 11.5% amid lower name recognition gains and fundraising. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 18 endorsement bolsters McMorrow, with five proposed debates and the August 4 primary looming as key catalysts in this closely contested three-way race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$404,125
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In the open Michigan Democratic Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, trader consensus favors state Sen. Mallory McMorrow at 58.5% implied probability, driven by her recent polling surge—including a March internal showing her at 30% versus Abdul El-Sayed's 25% and Rep. Haley Stevens' 23%—and dominant ActBlue fundraising with over $1.2 million and 55,000 donations year-to-date. El-Sayed holds steady at 31% amid progressive appeal but faces backlash over a planned April rally with controversial streamer Hasan Piker, while Stevens slips to 11.5% amid lower name recognition gains and fundraising. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 18 endorsement bolsters McMorrow, with five proposed debates and the August 4 primary looming as key catalysts in this closely contested three-way race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$404,125
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mallory McMorrow" at 58%, followed by "Abdul El-Sayed" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $404.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Mallory McMorrow" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abdul El-Sayed" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.