Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens' decision to vacate her seat for Michigan's open U.S. Senate race has left MI-11—an established Democratic stronghold with her past double-digit victories—as favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% trader consensus. State Sen. Jeremy Moss has emerged as the leading Democratic primary contender, bolstered by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement and recent backing from the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, while Democrats hold a commanding $3.2 million fundraising edge over Republicans. The GOP primary remains fragmented among underfunded outsiders like Don Ufford and Mike Steger. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic scandal, strong Republican recruit post-August 4 primaries, or national midterm tailwinds could challenge this positioning, though structural advantages persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-11 House Election Winner
MI-11 House Election Winner
$33,074 Vol.
$33,074 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$33,074 Vol.
$33,074 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$28,545 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$4,529 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens' decision to vacate her seat for Michigan's open U.S. Senate race has left MI-11—an established Democratic stronghold with her past double-digit victories—as favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% trader consensus. State Sen. Jeremy Moss has emerged as the leading Democratic primary contender, bolstered by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement and recent backing from the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, while Democrats hold a commanding $3.2 million fundraising edge over Republicans. The GOP primary remains fragmented among underfunded outsiders like Don Ufford and Mike Steger. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic scandal, strong Republican recruit post-August 4 primaries, or national midterm tailwinds could challenge this positioning, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$33,074End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens' decision to vacate her seat for Michigan's open U.S. Senate race has left MI-11—an established Democratic stronghold with her past double-digit victories—as favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% trader consensus. State Sen. Jeremy Moss has emerged as the leading Democratic primary contender, bolstered by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement and recent backing from the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, while Democrats hold a commanding $3.2 million fundraising edge over Republicans. The GOP primary remains fragmented among underfunded outsiders like Don Ufford and Mike Steger. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic scandal, strong Republican recruit post-August 4 primaries, or national midterm tailwinds could challenge this positioning, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,074End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens' decision to vacate her seat for Michigan's open U.S. Senate race has left MI-11—an established Democratic stronghold with her past double-digit victories—as favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% trader consensus. State Sen. Jeremy Moss has emerged as the leading Democratic primary contender, bolstered by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement and recent backing from the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, while Democrats hold a commanding $3.2 million fundraising edge over Republicans. The GOP primary remains fragmented among underfunded outsiders like Don Ufford and Mike Steger. Scenarios like a high-profile Democratic scandal, strong Republican recruit post-August 4 primaries, or national midterm tailwinds could challenge this positioning, though structural advantages persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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