Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts counted, place Fidesz-KDNP's party-list popular vote share at 38.43%, cementing trader consensus on the 36-40% outcome as partial tallies stabilized around 38-39% overnight amid record 76-79% turnout that propelled challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party to a two-thirds supermajority of 138 seats. This aligns with pre-election polling averages near 39% on Politico's Poll of Polls, reflecting Fidesz erosion from 54% in 2022 due to corruption scandals, economic discontent, and unified opposition momentum in March-April surveys showing Tisza leads of 15-20 points. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on seats, but final certification of diaspora votes—historically Fidesz-strong—could marginally shift shares above 40%; recounts in urban areas pose a slim risk below 36%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated36-40% 97.1%
40-44% 2.0%
<36% 1.0%
44-48% <1%
$130,050 Vol.
$130,050 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
<36%
1%
36-40%
97%
40-44%
2%
44-48%
<1%
48%+
<1%
36-40% 97.1%
40-44% 2.0%
<36% 1.0%
44-48% <1%
$130,050 Vol.
$130,050 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
<36%
$35,911 Vol.
1%
36-40%
$33,391 Vol.
97%
40-44%
$32,171 Vol.
2%
44-48%
$16,115 Vol.
<1%
48%+
$12,461 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts counted, place Fidesz-KDNP's party-list popular vote share at 38.43%, cementing trader consensus on the 36-40% outcome as partial tallies stabilized around 38-39% overnight amid record 76-79% turnout that propelled challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party to a two-thirds supermajority of 138 seats. This aligns with pre-election polling averages near 39% on Politico's Poll of Polls, reflecting Fidesz erosion from 54% in 2022 due to corruption scandals, economic discontent, and unified opposition momentum in March-April surveys showing Tisza leads of 15-20 points. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on seats, but final certification of diaspora votes—historically Fidesz-strong—could marginally shift shares above 40%; recounts in urban areas pose a slim risk below 36%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$130,050End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts counted, place Fidesz-KDNP's party-list popular vote share at 38.43%, cementing trader consensus on the 36-40% outcome as partial tallies stabilized around 38-39% overnight amid record 76-79% turnout that propelled challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party to a two-thirds supermajority of 138 seats. This aligns with pre-election polling averages near 39% on Politico's Poll of Polls, reflecting Fidesz erosion from 54% in 2022 due to corruption scandals, economic discontent, and unified opposition momentum in March-April surveys showing Tisza leads of 15-20 points. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on seats, but final certification of diaspora votes—historically Fidesz-strong—could marginally shift shares above 40%; recounts in urban areas pose a slim risk below 36%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Volume
$130,050End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 98.9% of precincts counted, place Fidesz-KDNP's party-list popular vote share at 38.43%, cementing trader consensus on the 36-40% outcome as partial tallies stabilized around 38-39% overnight amid record 76-79% turnout that propelled challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party to a two-thirds supermajority of 138 seats. This aligns with pre-election polling averages near 39% on Politico's Poll of Polls, reflecting Fidesz erosion from 54% in 2022 due to corruption scandals, economic discontent, and unified opposition momentum in March-April surveys showing Tisza leads of 15-20 points. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on seats, but final certification of diaspora votes—historically Fidesz-strong—could marginally shift shares above 40%; recounts in urban areas pose a slim risk below 36%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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