Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a net loss of one to two Republican governorships from the current 26 heading into November 2026 midterms, with 24–25 at 37.5% reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party despite incumbency edges in 18 defending seats. Recent March 19 Crystal Ball rating changes drove shifts, moving Georgia's open Republican seat to toss-up and Ohio's open seat from likely to leans Republican, boosting Democratic competitiveness alongside tight races in Nevada (Republican incumbent) and Iowa (open Republican); Kansas emerges as a likely Republican pickup from Democratic control, potentially offsetting one loss. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Minnesota, plus fluid candidate fields, heighten uncertainty in these swing-state paths to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated24–25 38%
22–23 23%
<22 18%
26–27 17%
$659,853 Vol.
$659,853 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
<22
18%
22–23
23%
24–25
38%
26–27
17%
28–29
5%
30–31
1%
32+
<1%
24–25 38%
22–23 23%
<22 18%
26–27 17%
$659,853 Vol.
$659,853 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
<22
$44,602 Vol.
18%
22–23
$4,603 Vol.
23%
24–25
$29,711 Vol.
38%
26–27
$12,406 Vol.
17%
28–29
$551,699 Vol.
5%
30–31
$4,840 Vol.
1%
32+
$11,991 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a net loss of one to two Republican governorships from the current 26 heading into November 2026 midterms, with 24–25 at 37.5% reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party despite incumbency edges in 18 defending seats. Recent March 19 Crystal Ball rating changes drove shifts, moving Georgia's open Republican seat to toss-up and Ohio's open seat from likely to leans Republican, boosting Democratic competitiveness alongside tight races in Nevada (Republican incumbent) and Iowa (open Republican); Kansas emerges as a likely Republican pickup from Democratic control, potentially offsetting one loss. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Minnesota, plus fluid candidate fields, heighten uncertainty in these swing-state paths to victory.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Volume
$659,853End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a net loss of one to two Republican governorships from the current 26 heading into November 2026 midterms, with 24–25 at 37.5% reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party despite incumbency edges in 18 defending seats. Recent March 19 Crystal Ball rating changes drove shifts, moving Georgia's open Republican seat to toss-up and Ohio's open seat from likely to leans Republican, boosting Democratic competitiveness alongside tight races in Nevada (Republican incumbent) and Iowa (open Republican); Kansas emerges as a likely Republican pickup from Democratic control, potentially offsetting one loss. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Minnesota, plus fluid candidate fields, heighten uncertainty in these swing-state paths to victory.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$659,853End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a net loss of one to two Republican governorships from the current 26 heading into November 2026 midterms, with 24–25 at 37.5% reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party despite incumbency edges in 18 defending seats. Recent March 19 Crystal Ball rating changes drove shifts, moving Georgia's open Republican seat to toss-up and Ohio's open seat from likely to leans Republican, boosting Democratic competitiveness alongside tight races in Nevada (Republican incumbent) and Iowa (open Republican); Kansas emerges as a likely Republican pickup from Democratic control, potentially offsetting one loss. Upcoming primaries in battlegrounds like Michigan and Minnesota, plus fluid candidate fields, heighten uncertainty in these swing-state paths to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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