Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the nation's most Republican—and longtime incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position after qualifying for reelection in January 2026 with over $1 million cash on hand. Aderholt crushed his 2024 primary challenger and won the general unopposed with 98.8%, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others deem the race Solid or Safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary against underfunded Tommy Barnes poses minimal threat, and Democrats Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver enter their own low-resource primary. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, Aderholt scandal, or massive national midterm wave shifting turnout in this deep-red northwest Alabama battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAL-04 House Election Winner
AL-04 House Election Winner
$22,957 Vol.
$22,957 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$22,957 Vol.
$22,957 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,591 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$12,366 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the nation's most Republican—and longtime incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position after qualifying for reelection in January 2026 with over $1 million cash on hand. Aderholt crushed his 2024 primary challenger and won the general unopposed with 98.8%, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others deem the race Solid or Safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary against underfunded Tommy Barnes poses minimal threat, and Democrats Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver enter their own low-resource primary. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, Aderholt scandal, or massive national midterm wave shifting turnout in this deep-red northwest Alabama battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$22,957End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the nation's most Republican—and longtime incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position after qualifying for reelection in January 2026 with over $1 million cash on hand. Aderholt crushed his 2024 primary challenger and won the general unopposed with 98.8%, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others deem the race Solid or Safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary against underfunded Tommy Barnes poses minimal threat, and Democrats Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver enter their own low-resource primary. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, Aderholt scandal, or massive national midterm wave shifting turnout in this deep-red northwest Alabama battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,957End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+33 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the nation's most Republican—and longtime incumbent Robert Aderholt's dominant position after qualifying for reelection in January 2026 with over $1 million cash on hand. Aderholt crushed his 2024 primary challenger and won the general unopposed with 98.8%, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others deem the race Solid or Safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary against underfunded Tommy Barnes poses minimal threat, and Democrats Amanda Pusczek and Shane Weaver enter their own low-resource primary. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset, Aderholt scandal, or massive national midterm wave shifting turnout in this deep-red northwest Alabama battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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