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Elections·Bolivia

2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner

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Elections·Bolivia

2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner

Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) 45%

Christian Democratic Party (PDC) 43%

Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) 30%

Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) 2.5%

Polymarket

$980 Vol.

Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) 45%

Christian Democratic Party (PDC) 43%

Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) 30%

Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) 2.5%

Polymarket

$980 Vol.

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Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE)

$146 Vol.

45%

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Christian Democratic Party (PDC)

$297 Vol.

23%

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Unity Bloc (UNIDAD)

$0 Vol.

30%

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Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)

$328 Vol.

3%

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Popular Alliance (AP)

$0 Vol.

27%

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Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate)

$210 Vol.

39%

Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Bolivia’s departments include the following: La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order. This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Trader consensus favors Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) at 45% implied probability to secure the most gubernatorial wins in Bolivia's fragmented 2026 subnational elections, driven by its outright victory in Pando and strong first-round lead in Santa Cruz—key autonomy strongholds—following the March 22 vote. Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate) trails at 34.5% after competitive showings in Santa Cruz and Cochabamba runoffs, reflecting regional autonomy sentiments. Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) at 28% benefits from Evo Morales-backed wins like Cochabamba, while President Rodrigo Paz's Christian Democratic Party (PDC) at 22.5% holds Beni but faces uphill runoffs. MAS-IPSP languishes at 2.5% amid post-2025 splits. Second-round ballots on April 19 in five departments will decide the plurality leader amid no outright sweeps.

Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.

A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.

This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Volume
$980
End Date
Mar 22, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Bolivia’s departments include the following: La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order. This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Bolivia’s departments include the following: La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order. This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Trader consensus favors Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) at 45% implied probability to secure the most gubernatorial wins in Bolivia's fragmented 2026 subnational elections, driven by its outright victory in Pando and strong first-round lead in Santa Cruz—key autonomy strongholds—following the March 22 vote. Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate) trails at 34.5% after competitive showings in Santa Cruz and Cochabamba runoffs, reflecting regional autonomy sentiments. Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) at 28% benefits from Evo Morales-backed wins like Cochabamba, while President Rodrigo Paz's Christian Democratic Party (PDC) at 22.5% holds Beni but faces uphill runoffs. MAS-IPSP languishes at 2.5% amid post-2025 splits. Second-round ballots on April 19 in five departments will decide the plurality leader amid no outright sweeps.

Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.

A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.

This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Volume
$980
End Date
Mar 22, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Bolivia’s departments include the following: La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order. This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE)" at 45%, followed by "Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate)" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner" is "Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE)" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate)" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.