U.S. X Iran predictions & odds

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Military action against Iran ends by...?

Military action against Iran ends by...?

100%

April 17

$15M Vol.

$13M today

$7M Liq.

Ends in 16 days

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

45%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$1M today

$213K Liq.

74

Ends in about 2 months

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

74%

June 30

$22M Vol.

$1M today

$320K Liq.

447

Ends in 3 months

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?

29%

April 21

$3M Vol.

$710K today

$92.8K Liq.

90

Ends in 7 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

18%

$8M Vol.

$569K today

$258K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

100%

Kuwait

$1M Vol.

$434K today

$394K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Israel military action against Iran by...?

Israel military action against Iran by...?

30%

April 21

$948K Vol.

$420K today

$97.1K Liq.

30

Ends in 7 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

56%

May 31

$266K Vol.

$266K today

$64.1K Liq.

12

Ends in 16 days

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

56%

April 21

$539K Vol.

$167K today

$75.8K Liq.

10

Ends in 7 days

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

47%

December 31

$591K Vol.

$134K today

$69.0K Liq.

7

Ends in 9 months

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

34%

April 21

$415K Vol.

$132K today

$32.0K Liq.

23

Ends in 7 days

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

85%

April 30

$118K Vol.

$118K today

$52.9K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

11%

United Kingdom

$2M Vol.

$99.9K today

$190K Liq.

120

Ends in 16 days

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

25%

$1M Vol.

$96.0K today

$20.3K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

27%

April 30

$4M Vol.

$89.7K today

$47.6K Liq.

163

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

19%

$2M Vol.

$74.1K today

$110K Liq.

35

Ends in about 2 months

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

7%

$1M Vol.

$55.0K today

$374K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

48%

$648K Vol.

$73.1K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

14%

UAE

$3M Vol.

$219K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

75%

Pakistan

$38.6K Vol.

$76.5K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like U.S. X Iran.

Polymarket currently hosts 53 active markets for U.S. X Iran that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Military action against Iran ends by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $68.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 74% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on U.S. X Iran predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.