Trader consensus implies a 95.4% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, driven by repeated Republican blocks on Democratic-led measures invoking section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to curb President Trump's military actions against Iran. Multiple prior attempts failed, including Senate rejection on a 47-53 vote in early March and House defeats shortly after, with the latest House unanimous consent bid blocked during a pro forma session four days ago. Amid partisan divides and GOP control of key procedural levers, no floor votes are scheduled despite Congress reconvening this week and Senate Minority Leader Schumer's push for a vote next week. Realistic shifts would require unexpected GOP defections or escalation prompting bipartisan urgency, though historical patterns favor continued stalemate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,423 Vol.
$14,423 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$14,423 Vol.
$14,423 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 95.4% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, driven by repeated Republican blocks on Democratic-led measures invoking section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to curb President Trump's military actions against Iran. Multiple prior attempts failed, including Senate rejection on a 47-53 vote in early March and House defeats shortly after, with the latest House unanimous consent bid blocked during a pro forma session four days ago. Amid partisan divides and GOP control of key procedural levers, no floor votes are scheduled despite Congress reconvening this week and Senate Minority Leader Schumer's push for a vote next week. Realistic shifts would require unexpected GOP defections or escalation prompting bipartisan urgency, though historical patterns favor continued stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$14,423End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 95.4% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, driven by repeated Republican blocks on Democratic-led measures invoking section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to curb President Trump's military actions against Iran. Multiple prior attempts failed, including Senate rejection on a 47-53 vote in early March and House defeats shortly after, with the latest House unanimous consent bid blocked during a pro forma session four days ago. Amid partisan divides and GOP control of key procedural levers, no floor votes are scheduled despite Congress reconvening this week and Senate Minority Leader Schumer's push for a vote next week. Realistic shifts would require unexpected GOP defections or escalation prompting bipartisan urgency, though historical patterns favor continued stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,423End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 95.4% probability that Congress will not pass an Iran war powers resolution by April 30, driven by repeated Republican blocks on Democratic-led measures invoking section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to curb President Trump's military actions against Iran. Multiple prior attempts failed, including Senate rejection on a 47-53 vote in early March and House defeats shortly after, with the latest House unanimous consent bid blocked during a pro forma session four days ago. Amid partisan divides and GOP control of key procedural levers, no floor votes are scheduled despite Congress reconvening this week and Senate Minority Leader Schumer's push for a vote next week. Realistic shifts would require unexpected GOP defections or escalation prompting bipartisan urgency, though historical patterns favor continued stalemate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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