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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

$166,026 Vol.

Aug 18, 2026
Polymarket

$166,026 Vol.

Polymarket

Bernadette Wilson

$13,979 Vol.

82%

Tom Begich

$7,130 Vol.

81%

Click Bishop

$40,377 Vol.

52%

Dave Bronson

$1,644 Vol.

50%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

$2,181 Vol.

48%

Matt Claman

$12,460 Vol.

29%

Treg Taylor

$55,467 Vol.

16%

Nancy Dahlstrom

$11,350 Vol.

20%

Hank Kroll

$398 Vol.

13%

Adam Crum

$4,028 Vol.

12%

Bruce Walden

$1,422 Vol.

12%

Matt Heilala

$2,721 Vol.

10%

Shelley Hughes

$0 Vol.

9%

Edna DeVries

$11,376 Vol.

6%

James Parkin

$1,492 Vol.

6%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, triggered by term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy's exit, features a crowded nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, advancing the leading candidates to a ranked-choice general election. A February Lake Research Partners poll of 600 likely voters showed Democrat Tom Begich atop the field at 22%, trailed by Republican Bernadette Wilson (14%), Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (9%), and Republican Dave Bronson (8%), with 23% undecided among over a dozen mostly Republican contenders. No significant developments have occurred in the past 30 days, but the June 1 filing deadline looms, potentially reshaping the field through consolidations or new entrants. Traders eye fundraising edges, regional turnout in Anchorage and rural areas, and Alaska's GOP lean as pivotal for primary advancement.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$166,026
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, triggered by term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy's exit, features a crowded nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, advancing the leading candidates to a ranked-choice general election. A February Lake Research Partners poll of 600 likely voters showed Democrat Tom Begich atop the field at 22%, trailed by Republican Bernadette Wilson (14%), Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (9%), and Republican Dave Bronson (8%), with 23% undecided among over a dozen mostly Republican contenders. No significant developments have occurred in the past 30 days, but the June 1 filing deadline looms, potentially reshaping the field through consolidations or new entrants. Traders eye fundraising edges, regional turnout in Anchorage and rural areas, and Alaska's GOP lean as pivotal for primary advancement.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$166,026
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bernadette Wilson" at 82%, followed by "Tom Begich" at 81%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" has generated $166K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is "Bernadette Wilson" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Begich" at 81%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.