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Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$538,376 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$538,376 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

United States

$8,418 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Italy

$6,455 Vol.

13%

Market icon

The Netherlands

$27,230 Vol.

20%

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Japan

$31,920 Vol.

16%

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Germany

$38,177 Vol.

6%

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Belgium

$60,861 Vol.

25%

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Finland

$36,552 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Austria

$171,480 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Greece

$44,669 Vol.

11%

Market icon

New Zealand

$112,613 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the coordinated diplomatic push at the 80th UN General Assembly in September 2025, where G7 members United Kingdom, Canada, and France—alongside Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, and others—formally recognized Palestinian statehood, the total reached 157 of 193 UN members, marking a historic shift amid stalled two-state solution talks and Gaza ceasefire efforts. No further recognitions have occurred in the subsequent seven months through April 2026, reflecting entrenched opposition in holdout nations like the United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, and Finland due to domestic politics, alliance commitments with Israel, and requirements for negotiated borders. Traders weigh ongoing UN Security Council debates on the Middle East, prospective diplomatic summits, and Gaza humanitarian developments as potential catalysts before the 2027 deadline, though significant barriers persist absent major breakthroughs in peace negotiations.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$538,376
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the coordinated diplomatic push at the 80th UN General Assembly in September 2025, where G7 members United Kingdom, Canada, and France—alongside Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, and others—formally recognized Palestinian statehood, the total reached 157 of 193 UN members, marking a historic shift amid stalled two-state solution talks and Gaza ceasefire efforts. No further recognitions have occurred in the subsequent seven months through April 2026, reflecting entrenched opposition in holdout nations like the United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, and Finland due to domestic politics, alliance commitments with Israel, and requirements for negotiated borders. Traders weigh ongoing UN Security Council debates on the Middle East, prospective diplomatic summits, and Gaza humanitarian developments as potential catalysts before the 2027 deadline, though significant barriers persist absent major breakthroughs in peace negotiations.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$538,376
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Belgium" at 25%, followed by "The Netherlands" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" has generated $538.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is "Belgium" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Netherlands" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.