A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$280,141,579 Vol.
March 2
No
March 6
No
March 15
No
March 31
No
April 7
Yes
April 10
Yes
April 15
Yes
April 30
Yes
May 15
Yes
June 30
Yes
May 31
Yes
December 31
Yes
$280,141,579 Vol.
March 2
$3,493,959 Vol.
No
March 6
$0 Vol.
No
March 15
$0 Vol.
No
March 31
$44,375,995 Vol.
No
April 7
$173,696,184 Vol.
Yes
April 10
$866,658 Vol.
Yes
April 15
$24,621,548 Vol.
Yes
April 30
$17,726,878 Vol.
Yes
May 15
$419,846 Vol.
Yes
June 30
$5,033,124 Vol.
Yes
May 31
$7,793,716 Vol.
Yes
December 31
$2,113,671 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$280,141,579Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$280,141,579Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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