Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 57% implied probability, driven by the absence of such actions despite recent diplomatic frictions. South Africa's January 30 declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata—over alleged violations of diplomatic norms including social media attacks on President Ramaphosa—prompted Israel's reciprocal move but fell short of targeting the full ambassador. Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own envoy from Israel amid Gaza and Iran tensions highlighted rifts but did not involve expelling an Israeli diplomat. With no further escalations in the past month and historical patterns of restraint among major powers, traders anticipate continued de-escalation signals or stalled negotiations outweighing risks from ongoing conflicts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$10,042 Vol.
$10,042 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,042 Vol.
$10,042 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 57% implied probability, driven by the absence of such actions despite recent diplomatic frictions. South Africa's January 30 declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata—over alleged violations of diplomatic norms including social media attacks on President Ramaphosa—prompted Israel's reciprocal move but fell short of targeting the full ambassador. Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own envoy from Israel amid Gaza and Iran tensions highlighted rifts but did not involve expelling an Israeli diplomat. With no further escalations in the past month and historical patterns of restraint among major powers, traders anticipate continued de-escalation signals or stalled negotiations outweighing risks from ongoing conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$10,042End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 57% implied probability, driven by the absence of such actions despite recent diplomatic frictions. South Africa's January 30 declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata—over alleged violations of diplomatic norms including social media attacks on President Ramaphosa—prompted Israel's reciprocal move but fell short of targeting the full ambassador. Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own envoy from Israel amid Gaza and Iran tensions highlighted rifts but did not involve expelling an Israeli diplomat. With no further escalations in the past month and historical patterns of restraint among major powers, traders anticipate continued de-escalation signals or stalled negotiations outweighing risks from ongoing conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,042End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 57% implied probability, driven by the absence of such actions despite recent diplomatic frictions. South Africa's January 30 declaration of Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata—over alleged violations of diplomatic norms including social media attacks on President Ramaphosa—prompted Israel's reciprocal move but fell short of targeting the full ambassador. Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own envoy from Israel amid Gaza and Iran tensions highlighted rifts but did not involve expelling an Israeli diplomat. With no further escalations in the past month and historical patterns of restraint among major powers, traders anticipate continued de-escalation signals or stalled negotiations outweighing risks from ongoing conflicts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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