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Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman 48%

Karen Bass 31%

Spencer Pratt 15%

Rae Huang 4.5%

Polymarket

$867,838 Vol.

Nithya Raman 48%

Karen Bass 31%

Spencer Pratt 15%

Rae Huang 4.5%

Polymarket

$867,838 Vol.

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Nithya Raman

$13,074 Vol.

48%

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Karen Bass

$28,110 Vol.

31%

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Spencer Pratt

$102,832 Vol.

15%

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Rae Huang

$43,170 Vol.

5%

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Asaad Alnajjar

$42,947 Vol.

1%

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Adam Miller

$89,938 Vol.

1%

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Gina Viola

$80,731 Vol.

1%

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Rick Caruso

$430,110 Vol.

<1%

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Lindsey Horvath

$20,005 Vol.

<1%

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Austin Beutner

$9,756 Vol.

<1%

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Monica Rodriguez

$7,164 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions City Councilmember Nithya Raman as the frontrunner at 47.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, propelled by a controversial March 30 Loyola Marymount University poll showing her at 33%—far ahead of polls like UCLA Luskin's early April survey (Raman 9%, 40% undecided)—amid her progressive focus on housing and homelessness drawing nearly half of respondents preferring a democratic socialist. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass trails at 31%, weighed down by 49-56% unfavorability ratings stemming from her criticized response to the 2025 Palisades wildfires and persistent street encampments, despite a recent endorsement from Sen. Adam Schiff. Reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 15% reflects his anti-establishment surge post-fire activism, in a volatile field where top two advance to a November runoff and high undecideds amplify polling discrepancies.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$867,838
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions City Councilmember Nithya Raman as the frontrunner at 47.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, propelled by a controversial March 30 Loyola Marymount University poll showing her at 33%—far ahead of polls like UCLA Luskin's early April survey (Raman 9%, 40% undecided)—amid her progressive focus on housing and homelessness drawing nearly half of respondents preferring a democratic socialist. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass trails at 31%, weighed down by 49-56% unfavorability ratings stemming from her criticized response to the 2025 Palisades wildfires and persistent street encampments, despite a recent endorsement from Sen. Adam Schiff. Reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 15% reflects his anti-establishment surge post-fire activism, in a volatile field where top two advance to a November runoff and high undecideds amplify polling discrepancies.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$867,838
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 48%, followed by "Karen Bass" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $867.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Nithya Raman" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Karen Bass" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.