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Geopolitics·Middle East

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Middle East

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

15% chance
Polymarket
NEW
15% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Joseph Aoun's ongoing diplomatic initiatives, including recent calls for direct negotiations with Israel to secure a ceasefire and his endorsement of a US-backed plan to dismantle Hezbollah's military wing by year's end, signal robust leadership stability more than a year into his January 2025 election by parliament, which resolved a two-year presidential vacuum. Amid persistent border tensions and sporadic Hezbollah rocket fire from southern Lebanon—confirmed by Aoun as originating outside army zones—no-confidence votes, parliamentary challenges, or internal cabinet fractures have materialized in the past month to threaten his tenure. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this consensus on his path to completing 2026 in office, barring unforeseen escalations like intensified Israeli military actions or domestic unrest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,892
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Joseph Aoun's ongoing diplomatic initiatives, including recent calls for direct negotiations with Israel to secure a ceasefire and his endorsement of a US-backed plan to dismantle Hezbollah's military wing by year's end, signal robust leadership stability more than a year into his January 2025 election by parliament, which resolved a two-year presidential vacuum. Amid persistent border tensions and sporadic Hezbollah rocket fire from southern Lebanon—confirmed by Aoun as originating outside army zones—no-confidence votes, parliamentary challenges, or internal cabinet fractures have materialized in the past month to threaten his tenure. Traders' 85.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this consensus on his path to completing 2026 in office, barring unforeseen escalations like intensified Israeli military actions or domestic unrest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,892
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 15% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 15¢, the market collectively assigns a 15% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" is 15% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 15% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.