Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (78%), reflecting the formidable incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising leads, and scarcity of credible challengers across the 13 vulnerable seats up in 2026. Recent polling and party endorsements underscore this stability, with figures like Jon Ossoff facing no serious primary opposition despite general election vulnerability in Georgia. The lone notable risk emerged on March 13 when Colorado incumbent John Hickenlooper withdrew from the state Democratic assembly due to insufficient grassroots support, injecting uncertainty ahead of June primaries; however, this has only lifted the "1" outcome to 10.7%. No primaries have yielded upsets as of mid-April, with most scheduled for May-June, including key dates in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey. Historical base rates show Senate incumbents prevailing in over 95% of primaries since 2000.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
0 70%
1 20.1%
3 4.1%
>4 3.4%
NEW
NEW
0
78%
1
11%
2
2%
3
4%
4
3%
>4
3%
0 70%
1 20.1%
3 4.1%
>4 3.4%
NEW
NEW
0
$1,254 Vol.
78%
1
$1,195 Vol.
11%
2
$575 Vol.
2%
3
$263 Vol.
4%
4
$289 Vol.
3%
>4
$188 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (78%), reflecting the formidable incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising leads, and scarcity of credible challengers across the 13 vulnerable seats up in 2026. Recent polling and party endorsements underscore this stability, with figures like Jon Ossoff facing no serious primary opposition despite general election vulnerability in Georgia. The lone notable risk emerged on March 13 when Colorado incumbent John Hickenlooper withdrew from the state Democratic assembly due to insufficient grassroots support, injecting uncertainty ahead of June primaries; however, this has only lifted the "1" outcome to 10.7%. No primaries have yielded upsets as of mid-April, with most scheduled for May-June, including key dates in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey. Historical base rates show Senate incumbents prevailing in over 95% of primaries since 2000.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$3,763Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (78%), reflecting the formidable incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising leads, and scarcity of credible challengers across the 13 vulnerable seats up in 2026. Recent polling and party endorsements underscore this stability, with figures like Jon Ossoff facing no serious primary opposition despite general election vulnerability in Georgia. The lone notable risk emerged on March 13 when Colorado incumbent John Hickenlooper withdrew from the state Democratic assembly due to insufficient grassroots support, injecting uncertainty ahead of June primaries; however, this has only lifted the "1" outcome to 10.7%. No primaries have yielded upsets as of mid-April, with most scheduled for May-June, including key dates in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey. Historical base rates show Senate incumbents prevailing in over 95% of primaries since 2000.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$3,763Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (78%), reflecting the formidable incumbency advantage, dominant fundraising leads, and scarcity of credible challengers across the 13 vulnerable seats up in 2026. Recent polling and party endorsements underscore this stability, with figures like Jon Ossoff facing no serious primary opposition despite general election vulnerability in Georgia. The lone notable risk emerged on March 13 when Colorado incumbent John Hickenlooper withdrew from the state Democratic assembly due to insufficient grassroots support, injecting uncertainty ahead of June primaries; however, this has only lifted the "1" outcome to 10.7%. No primaries have yielded upsets as of mid-April, with most scheduled for May-June, including key dates in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey. Historical base rates show Senate incumbents prevailing in over 95% of primaries since 2000.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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