Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous confidence—with "No" at a 99.4% implied probability—that container ship transits through the Suez Canal fell well short of 1,000 in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi threats and missile launches as recently as late March. Alphaliner data confirmed January's 150 transits, the weakest in a decade and down 17% year-over-year, with February and March showing continued declines amid carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM maintaining Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite brief late-2025 trials. This aligns with AIS-tracked traffic 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, amplifying supply chain costs and rerouting premiums. Tail risks hinge on unlikely Suez Canal Authority quarterly revisions upward or ship-type reclassifications, but multi-source validation minimizes these uncertainties ahead of official Q1 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
$56,141 Vol.
$56,141 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$56,141 Vol.
$56,141 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous confidence—with "No" at a 99.4% implied probability—that container ship transits through the Suez Canal fell well short of 1,000 in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi threats and missile launches as recently as late March. Alphaliner data confirmed January's 150 transits, the weakest in a decade and down 17% year-over-year, with February and March showing continued declines amid carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM maintaining Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite brief late-2025 trials. This aligns with AIS-tracked traffic 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, amplifying supply chain costs and rerouting premiums. Tail risks hinge on unlikely Suez Canal Authority quarterly revisions upward or ship-type reclassifications, but multi-source validation minimizes these uncertainties ahead of official Q1 resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$56,141End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous confidence—with "No" at a 99.4% implied probability—that container ship transits through the Suez Canal fell well short of 1,000 in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi threats and missile launches as recently as late March. Alphaliner data confirmed January's 150 transits, the weakest in a decade and down 17% year-over-year, with February and March showing continued declines amid carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM maintaining Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite brief late-2025 trials. This aligns with AIS-tracked traffic 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, amplifying supply chain costs and rerouting premiums. Tail risks hinge on unlikely Suez Canal Authority quarterly revisions upward or ship-type reclassifications, but multi-source validation minimizes these uncertainties ahead of official Q1 resolution.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volume
$56,579End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous confidence—with "No" at a 99.4% implied probability—that container ship transits through the Suez Canal fell well short of 1,000 in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from ongoing Houthi threats and missile launches as recently as late March. Alphaliner data confirmed January's 150 transits, the weakest in a decade and down 17% year-over-year, with February and March showing continued declines amid carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM maintaining Cape of Good Hope reroutes despite brief late-2025 trials. This aligns with AIS-tracked traffic 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, amplifying supply chain costs and rerouting premiums. Tail risks hinge on unlikely Suez Canal Authority quarterly revisions upward or ship-type reclassifications, but multi-source validation minimizes these uncertainties ahead of official Q1 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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