Following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2, trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the clear frontrunner at 44.5% to be the next cabinet departure, fueled by recent reports of President Trump's frustration with her performance amid an inspector general probe into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources, and a hostile workplace—prompting her top aides' resignations in early March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trades at 10.5% on similar expressions of presidential dissatisfaction, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (14.5%) and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (12.5%) follow due to low favorability tied to Iran war escalations and internal disputes, including a recent Gabbard deputy resignation. White House denials leave uncertainty ahead of midterm pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 45%
Pete Hegseth 15%
Tulsi Gabbard 13%
Howard Lutnick 11%
$22,362 Vol.
$22,362 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
45%
Pete Hegseth
15%
Tulsi Gabbard
13%
Howard Lutnick
11%
Lee Zeldin
4%
Russell T. Vought
4%
Susie Wiles
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
None before 2027
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Mike Waltz
2%
Linda McMahon
2%
Chris Wright
2%
Jamieson Greer
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Scott Bessent
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Brooke Rollins
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 45%
Pete Hegseth 15%
Tulsi Gabbard 13%
Howard Lutnick 11%
$22,362 Vol.
$22,362 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$2,647 Vol.
45%
Pete Hegseth
$1,463 Vol.
15%
Tulsi Gabbard
$1,313 Vol.
13%
Howard Lutnick
$923 Vol.
11%
Lee Zeldin
$2,088 Vol.
4%
Russell T. Vought
$662 Vol.
4%
Susie Wiles
$893 Vol.
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$1,171 Vol.
2%
None before 2027
$746 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$909 Vol.
2%
Mike Waltz
$1,006 Vol.
2%
Linda McMahon
$669 Vol.
2%
Chris Wright
$669 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$996 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$760 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$848 Vol.
1%
Scott Bessent
$641 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$694 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$636 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$542 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$665 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$612 Vol.
<1%
Brooke Rollins
$809 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2, trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the clear frontrunner at 44.5% to be the next cabinet departure, fueled by recent reports of President Trump's frustration with her performance amid an inspector general probe into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources, and a hostile workplace—prompting her top aides' resignations in early March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trades at 10.5% on similar expressions of presidential dissatisfaction, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (14.5%) and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (12.5%) follow due to low favorability tied to Iran war escalations and internal disputes, including a recent Gabbard deputy resignation. White House denials leave uncertainty ahead of midterm pressures.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$22,362End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2, trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the clear frontrunner at 44.5% to be the next cabinet departure, fueled by recent reports of President Trump's frustration with her performance amid an inspector general probe into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources, and a hostile workplace—prompting her top aides' resignations in early March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trades at 10.5% on similar expressions of presidential dissatisfaction, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (14.5%) and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (12.5%) follow due to low favorability tied to Iran war escalations and internal disputes, including a recent Gabbard deputy resignation. White House denials leave uncertainty ahead of midterm pressures.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$22,362End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2, trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the clear frontrunner at 44.5% to be the next cabinet departure, fueled by recent reports of President Trump's frustration with her performance amid an inspector general probe into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources, and a hostile workplace—prompting her top aides' resignations in early March. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trades at 10.5% on similar expressions of presidential dissatisfaction, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (14.5%) and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (12.5%) follow due to low favorability tied to Iran war escalations and internal disputes, including a recent Gabbard deputy resignation. White House denials leave uncertainty ahead of midterm pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions