President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, requests $152 million for the Federal Bureau of Prisons to initiate renovations on Alcatraz Island, aiming to convert the National Park Service-managed historic site into a state-of-the-art secure facility. However, no congressional appropriations have been approved, and extensive rebuilding—complicated by the island's deteriorated state, high operational costs that prompted its 1963 closure, environmental regulations, and local opposition from San Francisco officials—would likely span years beyond 2026. Earlier exploratory visits by Interior Secretary Burgum and Attorney General Bondi in July 2025 yielded no construction progress, leading traders to price overwhelming barriers to operational reopening this year at just 10% implied probability for Yes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, requests $152 million for the Federal Bureau of Prisons to initiate renovations on Alcatraz Island, aiming to convert the National Park Service-managed historic site into a state-of-the-art secure facility. However, no congressional appropriations have been approved, and extensive rebuilding—complicated by the island's deteriorated state, high operational costs that prompted its 1963 closure, environmental regulations, and local opposition from San Francisco officials—would likely span years beyond 2026. Earlier exploratory visits by Interior Secretary Burgum and Attorney General Bondi in July 2025 yielded no construction progress, leading traders to price overwhelming barriers to operational reopening this year at just 10% implied probability for Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$589End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, requests $152 million for the Federal Bureau of Prisons to initiate renovations on Alcatraz Island, aiming to convert the National Park Service-managed historic site into a state-of-the-art secure facility. However, no congressional appropriations have been approved, and extensive rebuilding—complicated by the island's deteriorated state, high operational costs that prompted its 1963 closure, environmental regulations, and local opposition from San Francisco officials—would likely span years beyond 2026. Earlier exploratory visits by Interior Secretary Burgum and Attorney General Bondi in July 2025 yielded no construction progress, leading traders to price overwhelming barriers to operational reopening this year at just 10% implied probability for Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$589End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, requests $152 million for the Federal Bureau of Prisons to initiate renovations on Alcatraz Island, aiming to convert the National Park Service-managed historic site into a state-of-the-art secure facility. However, no congressional appropriations have been approved, and extensive rebuilding—complicated by the island's deteriorated state, high operational costs that prompted its 1963 closure, environmental regulations, and local opposition from San Francisco officials—would likely span years beyond 2026. Earlier exploratory visits by Interior Secretary Burgum and Attorney General Bondi in July 2025 yielded no construction progress, leading traders to price overwhelming barriers to operational reopening this year at just 10% implied probability for Yes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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