U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's open Republican gubernatorial primary on August 6, driven by a March 24 poll projecting her landslide victory, record-breaking nominating petition with over 3,000 signatures from all 95 counties filed March 6, and overwhelming early fundraising that crashed the state reporting system. As the highest-profile entrant since announcing last August, her statewide incumbency advantage and conservative credentials outpace U.S. Rep. John Rose (4.5%) and state Rep. Monty Fritts (5.8%), both confirmed filers among two dozen candidates by March 11. With early voting starting July 17, late scandals or momentum shifts could narrow her lead, but polls reflect strong frontrunner positioning in this low-turnout primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarsha Blackburn 90%
Monty Fritts 5.8%
John Rose 5%
Marsha Blackburn
90%
Monty Fritts
6%
John Rose
5%
Marsha Blackburn 90%
Monty Fritts 5.8%
John Rose 5%
Marsha Blackburn
90%
Monty Fritts
6%
John Rose
5%
If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 10:33 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's open Republican gubernatorial primary on August 6, driven by a March 24 poll projecting her landslide victory, record-breaking nominating petition with over 3,000 signatures from all 95 counties filed March 6, and overwhelming early fundraising that crashed the state reporting system. As the highest-profile entrant since announcing last August, her statewide incumbency advantage and conservative credentials outpace U.S. Rep. John Rose (4.5%) and state Rep. Monty Fritts (5.8%), both confirmed filers among two dozen candidates by March 11. With early voting starting July 17, late scandals or momentum shifts could narrow her lead, but polls reflect strong frontrunner positioning in this low-turnout primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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