Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at near-certainty to secure the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-33% versus GERB–SDS's 19-22% in the latest Sova Harris and Nowcast EU surveys through April 11. This dominance stems from voter fatigue with seven prior elections since 2021, fueled by government resignations, anti-corruption protests, and the Zhelyazkov cabinet's December 2025 collapse amid budget disputes. Under proportional representation for 240 National Assembly seats, PB's edge reflects anti-incumbent sentiment, though no outright majority is expected, necessitating coalition negotiations. Realistic challenges include a late GERB–SDS surge, turnout spikes favoring established parties, or Radev-linked scandals, but steady trends limit upside for challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPB 94.8%
GERB–SDS 5.2%
PP–DB <1%
DPS <1%
$157,433 Vol.
$157,433 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
95%
GERB–SDS
5%
PP–DB
<1%
DPS
<1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
APS
<1%
BSP-United Left
<1%
MECH
<1%
Vazrazhdane
<1%
PB 94.8%
GERB–SDS 5.2%
PP–DB <1%
DPS <1%
$157,433 Vol.
$157,433 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
$48,536 Vol.
95%
GERB–SDS
$22,450 Vol.
5%
PP–DB
$16,376 Vol.
<1%
DPS
$4,252 Vol.
<1%
ITN
$11,889 Vol.
<1%
Velichie
$15,738 Vol.
<1%
APS
$11,608 Vol.
<1%
BSP-United Left
$6,898 Vol.
<1%
MECH
$10,144 Vol.
<1%
Vazrazhdane
$9,543 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at near-certainty to secure the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-33% versus GERB–SDS's 19-22% in the latest Sova Harris and Nowcast EU surveys through April 11. This dominance stems from voter fatigue with seven prior elections since 2021, fueled by government resignations, anti-corruption protests, and the Zhelyazkov cabinet's December 2025 collapse amid budget disputes. Under proportional representation for 240 National Assembly seats, PB's edge reflects anti-incumbent sentiment, though no outright majority is expected, necessitating coalition negotiations. Realistic challenges include a late GERB–SDS surge, turnout spikes favoring established parties, or Radev-linked scandals, but steady trends limit upside for challengers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$157,433End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at near-certainty to secure the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-33% versus GERB–SDS's 19-22% in the latest Sova Harris and Nowcast EU surveys through April 11. This dominance stems from voter fatigue with seven prior elections since 2021, fueled by government resignations, anti-corruption protests, and the Zhelyazkov cabinet's December 2025 collapse amid budget disputes. Under proportional representation for 240 National Assembly seats, PB's edge reflects anti-incumbent sentiment, though no outright majority is expected, necessitating coalition negotiations. Realistic challenges include a late GERB–SDS surge, turnout spikes favoring established parties, or Radev-linked scandals, but steady trends limit upside for challengers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$157,433End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at near-certainty to secure the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-33% versus GERB–SDS's 19-22% in the latest Sova Harris and Nowcast EU surveys through April 11. This dominance stems from voter fatigue with seven prior elections since 2021, fueled by government resignations, anti-corruption protests, and the Zhelyazkov cabinet's December 2025 collapse amid budget disputes. Under proportional representation for 240 National Assembly seats, PB's edge reflects anti-incumbent sentiment, though no outright majority is expected, necessitating coalition negotiations. Realistic challenges include a late GERB–SDS surge, turnout spikes favoring established parties, or Radev-linked scandals, but steady trends limit upside for challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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