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Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 75%

Janice Boylan 10.4%

John Stephens 5.6%

Gerry Hutch 3.5%

Polymarket

$802,671 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 75%

Janice Boylan 10.4%

John Stephens 5.6%

Gerry Hutch 3.5%

Polymarket

$802,671 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$14,290 Vol.

75%

Janice Boylan

$6,579 Vol.

10%

John Stephens

$76,546 Vol.

6%

Gerry Hutch

$495,767 Vol.

4%

Ray McAdam

$5,460 Vol.

3%

Gillian Sherratt

$132,903 Vol.

1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$4,948 Vol.

1%

Malachy Steenson

$13,993 Vol.

<1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$6,609 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$4,798 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$37,067 Vol.

<1%

Janet Horner

$3,711 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election, triggered by Paschal Donohoe's November 2025 resignation and set for mid-May 2026 alongside Galway West. This positioning stems from the party's strong 2024 general election performance, where Gary Gannon secured nearly 7,500 first preferences—close to Fine Gael's winning total—building voter loyalty in this diverse, working-class constituency amid housing and immigration tensions. Ennis, selected early in December 2025, benefits from a fragmented 12-candidate field splitting opposition votes, with Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan (selected February 2026 over high-profile activist Gillian Sherratt) at 10.5% as the main challenger. Recent Fianna Fáil selection of John Stephens (March 30) and Fine Gael's Ray McAdam have failed to consolidate government support, while independent Gerry Hutch's notoriety draws bets but faces electability barriers; transfers will prove decisive under Ireland's proportional representation system.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$802,671
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election, triggered by Paschal Donohoe's November 2025 resignation and set for mid-May 2026 alongside Galway West. This positioning stems from the party's strong 2024 general election performance, where Gary Gannon secured nearly 7,500 first preferences—close to Fine Gael's winning total—building voter loyalty in this diverse, working-class constituency amid housing and immigration tensions. Ennis, selected early in December 2025, benefits from a fragmented 12-candidate field splitting opposition votes, with Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan (selected February 2026 over high-profile activist Gillian Sherratt) at 10.5% as the main challenger. Recent Fianna Fáil selection of John Stephens (March 30) and Fine Gael's Ray McAdam have failed to consolidate government support, while independent Gerry Hutch's notoriety draws bets but faces electability barriers; transfers will prove decisive under Ireland's proportional representation system.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$802,671
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 75%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" has generated $802.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Ennis" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.