Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury, including March 27 damage to Iran's Khondab heavy water plant and April 4 strikes near Bushehr, have severely degraded key nuclear facilities like Natanz's enrichment plant, as confirmed by IAEA updates on April 6 showing no radiation increases or weaponization evidence. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, followed by negotiations in Islamabad starting April 11, signals de-escalation amid Trump's red line against Iranian nuclear acquisition. Despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 440 kg per February IAEA reports and restricted safeguards access, traders price a 91.5% "No" probability, viewing military setbacks and diplomacy as major barriers to testing before 2027, though failed talks or regime pressures could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$163,038 Vol.
$163,038 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$163,038 Vol.
$163,038 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury, including March 27 damage to Iran's Khondab heavy water plant and April 4 strikes near Bushehr, have severely degraded key nuclear facilities like Natanz's enrichment plant, as confirmed by IAEA updates on April 6 showing no radiation increases or weaponization evidence. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, followed by negotiations in Islamabad starting April 11, signals de-escalation amid Trump's red line against Iranian nuclear acquisition. Despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 440 kg per February IAEA reports and restricted safeguards access, traders price a 91.5% "No" probability, viewing military setbacks and diplomacy as major barriers to testing before 2027, though failed talks or regime pressures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$163,038End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury, including March 27 damage to Iran's Khondab heavy water plant and April 4 strikes near Bushehr, have severely degraded key nuclear facilities like Natanz's enrichment plant, as confirmed by IAEA updates on April 6 showing no radiation increases or weaponization evidence. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, followed by negotiations in Islamabad starting April 11, signals de-escalation amid Trump's red line against Iranian nuclear acquisition. Despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 440 kg per February IAEA reports and restricted safeguards access, traders price a 91.5% "No" probability, viewing military setbacks and diplomacy as major barriers to testing before 2027, though failed talks or regime pressures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$163,038End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury, including March 27 damage to Iran's Khondab heavy water plant and April 4 strikes near Bushehr, have severely degraded key nuclear facilities like Natanz's enrichment plant, as confirmed by IAEA updates on April 6 showing no radiation increases or weaponization evidence. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, followed by negotiations in Islamabad starting April 11, signals de-escalation amid Trump's red line against Iranian nuclear acquisition. Despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 440 kg per February IAEA reports and restricted safeguards access, traders price a 91.5% "No" probability, viewing military setbacks and diplomacy as major barriers to testing before 2027, though failed talks or regime pressures could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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