Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4-5 countries at 27% and 26%, reflecting Israel's verifiable 2026 airstrikes in Iran since the February 28 U.S.-Israel campaign targeting nuclear sites and leadership, alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen against Houthis, and Gaza. Recent April 8 strikes—the largest wave on Hezbollah since escalation, killing over 250 despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire—underscore persistent multi-front dynamics without introducing new territories, maintaining the close race. Separation could arise from verified hits in Iraq amid militia threats or Gulf states if proxies expand attacks, versus de-escalation via extended truce or Hezbollah negotiations capping the tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5 27.2%
4 25.9%
3 16.5%
6 13.9%
$6,421,701 Vol.
$6,421,701 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
17%
4
26%
5
27%
6
14%
7
4%
8
2%
9
1%
10
2%
11
6%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
5 27.2%
4 25.9%
3 16.5%
6 13.9%
$6,421,701 Vol.
$6,421,701 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
$1,899,463 Vol.
17%
4
$1,144,091 Vol.
26%
5
$496,037 Vol.
27%
6
$626,859 Vol.
14%
7
$601,971 Vol.
4%
8
$499,852 Vol.
2%
9
$221,651 Vol.
1%
10
$375,926 Vol.
2%
11
$97,602 Vol.
6%
12
$61,754 Vol.
<1%
13
$133,930 Vol.
<1%
14
$100,735 Vol.
<1%
15+
$36,247 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4-5 countries at 27% and 26%, reflecting Israel's verifiable 2026 airstrikes in Iran since the February 28 U.S.-Israel campaign targeting nuclear sites and leadership, alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen against Houthis, and Gaza. Recent April 8 strikes—the largest wave on Hezbollah since escalation, killing over 250 despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire—underscore persistent multi-front dynamics without introducing new territories, maintaining the close race. Separation could arise from verified hits in Iraq amid militia threats or Gulf states if proxies expand attacks, versus de-escalation via extended truce or Hezbollah negotiations capping the tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,421,701End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4-5 countries at 27% and 26%, reflecting Israel's verifiable 2026 airstrikes in Iran since the February 28 U.S.-Israel campaign targeting nuclear sites and leadership, alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen against Houthis, and Gaza. Recent April 8 strikes—the largest wave on Hezbollah since escalation, killing over 250 despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire—underscore persistent multi-front dynamics without introducing new territories, maintaining the close race. Separation could arise from verified hits in Iraq amid militia threats or Gulf states if proxies expand attacks, versus de-escalation via extended truce or Hezbollah negotiations capping the tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,421,701End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4-5 countries at 27% and 26%, reflecting Israel's verifiable 2026 airstrikes in Iran since the February 28 U.S.-Israel campaign targeting nuclear sites and leadership, alongside ongoing operations in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen against Houthis, and Gaza. Recent April 8 strikes—the largest wave on Hezbollah since escalation, killing over 250 despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire—underscore persistent multi-front dynamics without introducing new territories, maintaining the close race. Separation could arise from verified hits in Iraq amid militia threats or Gulf states if proxies expand attacks, versus de-escalation via extended truce or Hezbollah negotiations capping the tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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