President Trump's April 6 endorsement of Steve Hilton for California governor, announced via social media, has traders pricing that outcome at 98% probability, solidifying Hilton's position ahead of the state's top-two primary and GOP convention vote this weekend. In the Texas Senate GOP runoff scheduled for May 26, consensus favors Attorney General Ken Paxton at 81% amid Trump's history of supporting MAGA-aligned challengers against incumbents like Sen. John Cornyn (32%), despite the president withholding a formal nod post-March 3 primary. Susan Collins commands 63% for Maine Senate re-election as her moderate profile faces primary pressures, with broader 2026 midterm endorsement patterns influencing trader sentiment ahead of November generals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$133,125 Vol.

Steve Hilton - CA-Gov
94%

Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
68%

Andy Barr - KY-Sen
42%

John Cornyn - TX-Sen
16%

Susan Collins - ME-Sen
36%
$133,125 Vol.

Steve Hilton - CA-Gov
94%

Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
68%

Andy Barr - KY-Sen
42%

John Cornyn - TX-Sen
16%

Susan Collins - ME-Sen
36%
If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2025, 4:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 6 endorsement of Steve Hilton for California governor, announced via social media, has traders pricing that outcome at 98% probability, solidifying Hilton's position ahead of the state's top-two primary and GOP convention vote this weekend. In the Texas Senate GOP runoff scheduled for May 26, consensus favors Attorney General Ken Paxton at 81% amid Trump's history of supporting MAGA-aligned challengers against incumbents like Sen. John Cornyn (32%), despite the president withholding a formal nod post-March 3 primary. Susan Collins commands 63% for Maine Senate re-election as her moderate profile faces primary pressures, with broader 2026 midterm endorsement patterns influencing trader sentiment ahead of November generals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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