US special forces conducted a one-time raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narcoterrorism charges after airstrikes suppressed Venezuelan air defenses, marking the initial US military entry. Since then, Delcy Rodríguez's interim government has cooperated with Washington, enabling US embassy reopening on March 30, over $1 billion in oil sales, prisoner amnesties releasing hundreds, and mining deals, fostering de-escalation without further deployments. No escalatory threats or incidents reported in the past 30 days amid stabilized diplomatic and economic ties. Opposition leader María Corina Machado presses for elections, but congressional war powers resolutions and Maduro's ongoing US trial represent key uncertainties that could influence any future US military involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,281,741 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
June 30
10%
$1,281,741 Vol.
June 30
$196,979 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a one-time raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narcoterrorism charges after airstrikes suppressed Venezuelan air defenses, marking the initial US military entry. Since then, Delcy Rodríguez's interim government has cooperated with Washington, enabling US embassy reopening on March 30, over $1 billion in oil sales, prisoner amnesties releasing hundreds, and mining deals, fostering de-escalation without further deployments. No escalatory threats or incidents reported in the past 30 days amid stabilized diplomatic and economic ties. Opposition leader María Corina Machado presses for elections, but congressional war powers resolutions and Maduro's ongoing US trial represent key uncertainties that could influence any future US military involvement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,281,741End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a one-time raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narcoterrorism charges after airstrikes suppressed Venezuelan air defenses, marking the initial US military entry. Since then, Delcy Rodríguez's interim government has cooperated with Washington, enabling US embassy reopening on March 30, over $1 billion in oil sales, prisoner amnesties releasing hundreds, and mining deals, fostering de-escalation without further deployments. No escalatory threats or incidents reported in the past 30 days amid stabilized diplomatic and economic ties. Opposition leader María Corina Machado presses for elections, but congressional war powers resolutions and Maduro's ongoing US trial represent key uncertainties that could influence any future US military involvement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,281,741End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US special forces conducted a one-time raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narcoterrorism charges after airstrikes suppressed Venezuelan air defenses, marking the initial US military entry. Since then, Delcy Rodríguez's interim government has cooperated with Washington, enabling US embassy reopening on March 30, over $1 billion in oil sales, prisoner amnesties releasing hundreds, and mining deals, fostering de-escalation without further deployments. No escalatory threats or incidents reported in the past 30 days amid stabilized diplomatic and economic ties. Opposition leader María Corina Machado presses for elections, but congressional war powers resolutions and Maduro's ongoing US trial represent key uncertainties that could influence any future US military involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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