Market icon

Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?

Market icon

Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?

$37,484 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$37,484 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$6,528 Vol.

3%

June 30

$30,956 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump Mobile's T1 smartphone, announced in June 2025 as a gold-colored, American-designed device priced at $499 with preorders via $100 deposits from nearly 600,000 customers, remains unreleased after missing multiple deadlines from August 2025 through early 2026. Recent developments include FCC certification in January, a prototype reveal last week showing redesigned features like a curved-edge display and vertical cameras—now costing under $1,000 for new orders—and an April 6 trademark filing for its "The 47 Plan" service, signaling renewed activity after months of silence. The MVNO operates on major networks selling refurbished phones, but trader sentiment hinges on shipping confirmation amid persistent delays and skepticism over "made in USA" claims revised to Florida assembly. Watch for official launch updates before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify.

Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$37,484
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump Mobile's T1 smartphone, announced in June 2025 as a gold-colored, American-designed device priced at $499 with preorders via $100 deposits from nearly 600,000 customers, remains unreleased after missing multiple deadlines from August 2025 through early 2026. Recent developments include FCC certification in January, a prototype reveal last week showing redesigned features like a curved-edge display and vertical cameras—now costing under $1,000 for new orders—and an April 6 trademark filing for its "The 47 Plan" service, signaling renewed activity after months of silence. The MVNO operates on major networks selling refurbished phones, but trader sentiment hinges on shipping confirmation amid persistent delays and skepticism over "made in USA" claims revised to Florida assembly. Watch for official launch updates before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify.

Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$37,484
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 15%, followed by "April 30" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 15¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?" has generated $37.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?" is "June 30" at 15%, meaning the market assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.