Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs a second-weekend domestic box office under $70 million at 99% implied probability, driven by confirmed estimates of $68.6–$69 million from Box Office Mojo, Variety, and Deadline—reflecting a sharp 57% drop from the Easter-holiday inflated opening of $131–$158 million. This front-loaded performance trails the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's stronger 37% hold to $92 million, hampered by mixed critical reception (40–50% Rotten Tomatoes) despite robust 90% audience scores and 79% PostTrak positives limiting word-of-mouth legs. An upset to $70 million-plus would require improbable Sunday walkups amid post-holiday normalization and steady competition, with final tallies expected Monday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<70m 98.6%
70-80m 1.1%
80-90m <1%
>90m <1%
$243,266 Vol.
$243,266 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<70m
99%
70-80m
1%
80-90m
<1%
>90m
<1%
<70m 98.6%
70-80m 1.1%
80-90m <1%
>90m <1%
$243,266 Vol.
$243,266 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<70m
$94,679 Vol.
99%
70-80m
$48,575 Vol.
1%
80-90m
$40,073 Vol.
<1%
>90m
$59,940 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs a second-weekend domestic box office under $70 million at 99% implied probability, driven by confirmed estimates of $68.6–$69 million from Box Office Mojo, Variety, and Deadline—reflecting a sharp 57% drop from the Easter-holiday inflated opening of $131–$158 million. This front-loaded performance trails the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's stronger 37% hold to $92 million, hampered by mixed critical reception (40–50% Rotten Tomatoes) despite robust 90% audience scores and 79% PostTrak positives limiting word-of-mouth legs. An upset to $70 million-plus would require improbable Sunday walkups amid post-holiday normalization and steady competition, with final tallies expected Monday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ET
Volume
$243,266End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs a second-weekend domestic box office under $70 million at 99% implied probability, driven by confirmed estimates of $68.6–$69 million from Box Office Mojo, Variety, and Deadline—reflecting a sharp 57% drop from the Easter-holiday inflated opening of $131–$158 million. This front-loaded performance trails the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's stronger 37% hold to $92 million, hampered by mixed critical reception (40–50% Rotten Tomatoes) despite robust 90% audience scores and 79% PostTrak positives limiting word-of-mouth legs. An upset to $70 million-plus would require improbable Sunday walkups amid post-holiday normalization and steady competition, with final tallies expected Monday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$243,266End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs a second-weekend domestic box office under $70 million at 99% implied probability, driven by confirmed estimates of $68.6–$69 million from Box Office Mojo, Variety, and Deadline—reflecting a sharp 57% drop from the Easter-holiday inflated opening of $131–$158 million. This front-loaded performance trails the original Super Mario Bros. Movie's stronger 37% hold to $92 million, hampered by mixed critical reception (40–50% Rotten Tomatoes) despite robust 90% audience scores and 79% PostTrak positives limiting word-of-mouth legs. An upset to $70 million-plus would require improbable Sunday walkups amid post-holiday normalization and steady competition, with final tallies expected Monday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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