Trade War predictions & odds

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Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

30%

Israel

$252K Vol.

$196K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

30%

800–900B

$18.9K Vol.

$18.9K Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

53%

$351K Vol.

$20.3K Liq.

37

Ends in 3 months

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

18%

June 30

$113K Vol.

$38.3K Liq.

15

Ends in 3 months

Will Trump visit China by...?

Will Trump visit China by...?

82%

June 30

$24M Vol.

$289K today

$386K Liq.

447

Ends in 16 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

21%

Oil Sanction Relief

$350K Vol.

$105K today

$75.0K Liq.

14

Ends in 16 days

Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?

Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?

7%

$54.2K Vol.

$18.9K Liq.

11

Ends in 3 days

Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?

Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?

79%

$60

$216K Vol.

$48.0K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

China x India military clash by...?

China x India military clash by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$226K Vol.

$15.1K Liq.

14

US x China Military clash before 2027?

US x China Military clash before 2027?

11%

$67.4K Vol.

$29.0K Liq.

8

Ends in 9 months

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

56%

$489K Vol.

$48.9K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

16%

$30.6K Vol.

$15.9K Liq.

4

Ends in 3 months

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

5%

$43.7K Vol.

$12.6K Liq.

4

Ends in 3 months

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

84%

$21.0K Vol.

$1.1K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

14%

$2M Vol.

$104K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Pro Football Draft: Any team to trade into Top 10?

Pro Football Draft: Any team to trade into Top 10?

51%

$0 Vol.

$30 Liq.

Ends in 10 days

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

15%

$588K Vol.

$66.3K Liq.

31

Ends in 9 months

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

45%

June 30, 2026

$2M Vol.

$8.4K Liq.

109

Ends in 3 months

What will Bitcoin outperform in April?

What will Bitcoin outperform in April?

54%

NVIDIA (NVDA)

$24.1K Vol.

$20.7K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

55%

May 31

$264K Vol.

$264K today

$60.4K Liq.

12

Ends in 16 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Trade War.

Polymarket currently hosts 258 active markets for Trade War that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $30.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “China x Japan military clash before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will Trump visit China by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will Trump visit China by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 82% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Trade War predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.