Polymarket traders show no clear consensus for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 21.3% for 1.0–1.5%, 20.9% for 1.5–2.0%, and 20.7% for 2.0–2.5%, reflecting heightened uncertainty two weeks ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast held steady at 1.3% as of April 9—incorporating March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 (beating low consensus but with strike distortions) and rising initial jobless claims to 219,000—has anchored sentiment toward sub-2% outcomes amid weak Q4 2025 GDP of 0.5% and softening consumer spending indicators. Key swing factors include upcoming ISM services data and final retail sales revisions, which could tip probabilities across these narrow bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS GDP growth in Q1 2026?
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
1.5–2.0% 22.6%
1.0–1.5% 21.8%
2.0–2.5% 20.8%
<1.0% 17.0%
$297,624 Vol.
$297,624 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
17%
1.0–1.5%
22%
1.5–2.0%
23%
2.0–2.5%
21%
2.5–3.0%
9%
3.0–3.5%
7%
≥3.5%
7%
1.5–2.0% 22.6%
1.0–1.5% 21.8%
2.0–2.5% 20.8%
<1.0% 17.0%
$297,624 Vol.
$297,624 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
$27,854 Vol.
17%
1.0–1.5%
$7,084 Vol.
22%
1.5–2.0%
$29,719 Vol.
23%
2.0–2.5%
$43,800 Vol.
21%
2.5–3.0%
$24,356 Vol.
9%
3.0–3.5%
$90,553 Vol.
7%
≥3.5%
$74,257 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders show no clear consensus for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 21.3% for 1.0–1.5%, 20.9% for 1.5–2.0%, and 20.7% for 2.0–2.5%, reflecting heightened uncertainty two weeks ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast held steady at 1.3% as of April 9—incorporating March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 (beating low consensus but with strike distortions) and rising initial jobless claims to 219,000—has anchored sentiment toward sub-2% outcomes amid weak Q4 2025 GDP of 0.5% and softening consumer spending indicators. Key swing factors include upcoming ISM services data and final retail sales revisions, which could tip probabilities across these narrow bins.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$297,624End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Polymarket traders show no clear consensus for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 21.3% for 1.0–1.5%, 20.9% for 1.5–2.0%, and 20.7% for 2.0–2.5%, reflecting heightened uncertainty two weeks ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast held steady at 1.3% as of April 9—incorporating March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 (beating low consensus but with strike distortions) and rising initial jobless claims to 219,000—has anchored sentiment toward sub-2% outcomes amid weak Q4 2025 GDP of 0.5% and softening consumer spending indicators. Key swing factors include upcoming ISM services data and final retail sales revisions, which could tip probabilities across these narrow bins.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$297,624End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show no clear consensus for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 21.3% for 1.0–1.5%, 20.9% for 1.5–2.0%, and 20.7% for 2.0–2.5%, reflecting heightened uncertainty two weeks ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast held steady at 1.3% as of April 9—incorporating March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 (beating low consensus but with strike distortions) and rising initial jobless claims to 219,000—has anchored sentiment toward sub-2% outcomes amid weak Q4 2025 GDP of 0.5% and softening consumer spending indicators. Key swing factors include upcoming ISM services data and final retail sales revisions, which could tip probabilities across these narrow bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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