Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England base rate at 3.75% for the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky CPI inflation holding at 3.0% through February amid slowing but persistent 3.8% wage growth over the three months to January and unemployment edging up to 5.2%. The MPC's unanimous March 19 hold underscored caution despite labor market softening, as services inflation remains above the 2% target, diminishing rate-cut prospects while a modest 5.5% hike chance lingers on upside inflation risks. March CPI data, due April 22, represents the key pre-meeting catalyst that could shift odds if it deviates sharply from expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in April?
Bank of England decision in April?
No change 94.4%
Increase 5.5%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$408,803 Vol.
$408,803 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
94%
Increase
5%
No change 94.4%
Increase 5.5%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$408,803 Vol.
$408,803 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
94%
Increase
5%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England base rate at 3.75% for the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky CPI inflation holding at 3.0% through February amid slowing but persistent 3.8% wage growth over the three months to January and unemployment edging up to 5.2%. The MPC's unanimous March 19 hold underscored caution despite labor market softening, as services inflation remains above the 2% target, diminishing rate-cut prospects while a modest 5.5% hike chance lingers on upside inflation risks. March CPI data, due April 22, represents the key pre-meeting catalyst that could shift odds if it deviates sharply from expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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