Traders heavily favor no change (71%) in the ECB's key interest rates at its April 30 Governing Council meeting, with a 28% chance of an increase reflecting hawkish pressures from sticky inflation, while cuts remain negligible below 1%. March euro area annual inflation accelerated to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—driven by higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% but revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6%. Officials have signaled potential rate hike discussions if upside risks materialize, supported by modest GDP growth projections around 0.9%, outweighing disinflationary forces and keeping policy on hold as the baseline consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB Interest Rates: April 2026
ECB Interest Rates: April 2026
No change 71.8%
Increase 27.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$449,577 Vol.
$449,577 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
72%
Increase
28%
No change 71.8%
Increase 27.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$449,577 Vol.
$449,577 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$79,081 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$82,419 Vol.
<1%
No change
$135,890 Vol.
72%
Increase
$153,016 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Traders heavily favor no change (71%) in the ECB's key interest rates at its April 30 Governing Council meeting, with a 28% chance of an increase reflecting hawkish pressures from sticky inflation, while cuts remain negligible below 1%. March euro area annual inflation accelerated to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—driven by higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% but revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6%. Officials have signaled potential rate hike discussions if upside risks materialize, supported by modest GDP growth projections around 0.9%, outweighing disinflationary forces and keeping policy on hold as the baseline consensus.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$449,577End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Traders heavily favor no change (71%) in the ECB's key interest rates at its April 30 Governing Council meeting, with a 28% chance of an increase reflecting hawkish pressures from sticky inflation, while cuts remain negligible below 1%. March euro area annual inflation accelerated to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—driven by higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% but revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6%. Officials have signaled potential rate hike discussions if upside risks materialize, supported by modest GDP growth projections around 0.9%, outweighing disinflationary forces and keeping policy on hold as the baseline consensus.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$449,577End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders heavily favor no change (71%) in the ECB's key interest rates at its April 30 Governing Council meeting, with a 28% chance of an increase reflecting hawkish pressures from sticky inflation, while cuts remain negligible below 1%. March euro area annual inflation accelerated to 2.5%—up from 1.9% in February—driven by higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions, prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% but revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6%. Officials have signaled potential rate hike discussions if upside risks materialize, supported by modest GDP growth projections around 0.9%, outweighing disinflationary forces and keeping policy on hold as the baseline consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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