Market icon
Economy·Business

US bank failure by December 31?

Market icon
Economy·Business

US bank failure by December 31?

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

65% chance
Polymarket

$12,364 Vol.

65% chance
Polymarket

$12,364 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The FDIC's January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust marked the first U.S. bank failure of 2026, but Polymarket traders price an 78% implied probability for at least one more by year-end, reflecting historical base rates of 2-5 annual FDIC resolutions amid persistent regional bank stresses. S&P 500 financials have plunged 10% year-to-date—the worst start since 1990—driven by rising credit delinquencies, $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing by December, and UBS-projected private credit defaults potentially reaching 14-15% in adverse scenarios. Elevated CRE exposure for midsize lenders persists despite Fed stress tests affirming capital resilience, with Q2 earnings and inflation releases as key near-term catalysts for sentiment shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$12,364
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The FDIC's January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust marked the first U.S. bank failure of 2026, but Polymarket traders price an 78% implied probability for at least one more by year-end, reflecting historical base rates of 2-5 annual FDIC resolutions amid persistent regional bank stresses. S&P 500 financials have plunged 10% year-to-date—the worst start since 1990—driven by rising credit delinquencies, $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing by December, and UBS-projected private credit defaults potentially reaching 14-15% in adverse scenarios. Elevated CRE exposure for midsize lenders persists despite Fed stress tests affirming capital resilience, with Q2 earnings and inflation releases as key near-term catalysts for sentiment shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$12,364
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Related

Market icon

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

61%
Market icon

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

68%
Market icon

ECB rate cut in 2026?

25%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US bank failure by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 71% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 71¢, the market collectively assigns a 71% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US bank failure by December 31?" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US bank failure by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US bank failure by December 31?" is 71% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 71% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US bank failure by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.