Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 42% implied probability for 2.5%+ and 37.5% for 2.0–2.4% year-over-year, reflecting robust semiconductor export momentum offsetting persistent construction and consumption weakness after Q4 2025's 1.5% print. Recent March exports surged 48% year-over-year to a record $86 billion, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, while factory activity expanded for a third month per PMI data; however, February industrial production dipped 2.2% and retail sales showed mixed signals, tempering optimism. Bank of Korea's full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% anchors expectations, with the advance Q1 estimate due April 23 as the key resolution catalyst amid data-dependent policy stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
2.5%+ 44%
2.0–2.4% 36%
1.5–1.9% 20%
1.0–1.4% 3.8%
$10,994 Vol.
$10,994 Vol.
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
2%
0.0–0.4%
2%
0.5–0.9%
3%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
20%
2.0–2.4%
36%
2.5%+
44%
2.5%+ 44%
2.0–2.4% 36%
1.5–1.9% 20%
1.0–1.4% 3.8%
$10,994 Vol.
$10,994 Vol.
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$1,664 Vol.
2%
0.0–0.4%
$643 Vol.
2%
0.5–0.9%
$372 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.4%
$705 Vol.
4%
1.5–1.9%
$560 Vol.
20%
2.0–2.4%
$489 Vol.
36%
2.5%+
$6,561 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 42% implied probability for 2.5%+ and 37.5% for 2.0–2.4% year-over-year, reflecting robust semiconductor export momentum offsetting persistent construction and consumption weakness after Q4 2025's 1.5% print. Recent March exports surged 48% year-over-year to a record $86 billion, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, while factory activity expanded for a third month per PMI data; however, February industrial production dipped 2.2% and retail sales showed mixed signals, tempering optimism. Bank of Korea's full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% anchors expectations, with the advance Q1 estimate due April 23 as the key resolution catalyst amid data-dependent policy stance.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$10,994End Date
Apr 23, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 42% implied probability for 2.5%+ and 37.5% for 2.0–2.4% year-over-year, reflecting robust semiconductor export momentum offsetting persistent construction and consumption weakness after Q4 2025's 1.5% print. Recent March exports surged 48% year-over-year to a record $86 billion, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, while factory activity expanded for a third month per PMI data; however, February industrial production dipped 2.2% and retail sales showed mixed signals, tempering optimism. Bank of Korea's full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% anchors expectations, with the advance Q1 estimate due April 23 as the key resolution catalyst amid data-dependent policy stance.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$10,994End Date
Apr 23, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 42% implied probability for 2.5%+ and 37.5% for 2.0–2.4% year-over-year, reflecting robust semiconductor export momentum offsetting persistent construction and consumption weakness after Q4 2025's 1.5% print. Recent March exports surged 48% year-over-year to a record $86 billion, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, while factory activity expanded for a third month per PMI data; however, February industrial production dipped 2.2% and retail sales showed mixed signals, tempering optimism. Bank of Korea's full-year 2026 forecast at 2.0% anchors expectations, with the advance Q1 estimate due April 23 as the key resolution catalyst amid data-dependent policy stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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