Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for exactly one FOMC dissenter at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting divisions exposed in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8, which highlighted an increasing number of participants viewing two-sided rate risks amid persistent inflation above 3% in recent core CPI prints. A single dissent mirrors the 11-1 March vote, where only Governor Miran broke ranks for a cut, as hawks like Bowman and Waller pushed back less aggressively than anticipated despite elevated oil pressures from Middle East tensions. Labor market softening keeps unemployment near 4.3%, tempering cut urgency and supporting modest hawkish dissent odds, with 27.5% for two; upcoming PPI data on April 14 could sway sentiment further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 60%
2 27%
3 7%
0 5.5%
$37,164 Vol.
$37,164 Vol.
0
5%
1
60%
2
27%
3
7%
4+
2%
1 60%
2 27%
3 7%
0 5.5%
$37,164 Vol.
$37,164 Vol.
0
5%
1
60%
2
27%
3
7%
4+
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for exactly one FOMC dissenter at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting divisions exposed in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8, which highlighted an increasing number of participants viewing two-sided rate risks amid persistent inflation above 3% in recent core CPI prints. A single dissent mirrors the 11-1 March vote, where only Governor Miran broke ranks for a cut, as hawks like Bowman and Waller pushed back less aggressively than anticipated despite elevated oil pressures from Middle East tensions. Labor market softening keeps unemployment near 4.3%, tempering cut urgency and supporting modest hawkish dissent odds, with 27.5% for two; upcoming PPI data on April 14 could sway sentiment further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions