Trader consensus favors "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria and absence of such events through mid-April. USGS data confirms no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24—well below the threshold, as these great quakes occur roughly once per decade on average. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 eruptions, with activity limited to smaller events like Kīlauea and Mayon. No 10kt+ meteor airbursts detected by NASA monitoring, and NOAA forecasts predict a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, with just 32% odds of any major (Category 3+) U.S. landfall, let alone Category 5 per Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak risks persist through November, with updated model ensembles expected soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$198,273 Vol.
$198,273 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$198,273 Vol.
$198,273 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria and absence of such events through mid-April. USGS data confirms no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24—well below the threshold, as these great quakes occur roughly once per decade on average. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 eruptions, with activity limited to smaller events like Kīlauea and Mayon. No 10kt+ meteor airbursts detected by NASA monitoring, and NOAA forecasts predict a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, with just 32% odds of any major (Category 3+) U.S. landfall, let alone Category 5 per Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak risks persist through November, with updated model ensembles expected soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$198,273End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria and absence of such events through mid-April. USGS data confirms no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24—well below the threshold, as these great quakes occur roughly once per decade on average. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 eruptions, with activity limited to smaller events like Kīlauea and Mayon. No 10kt+ meteor airbursts detected by NASA monitoring, and NOAA forecasts predict a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, with just 32% odds of any major (Category 3+) U.S. landfall, let alone Category 5 per Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak risks persist through November, with updated model ensembles expected soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$198,273End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 71.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria and absence of such events through mid-April. USGS data confirms no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes worldwide, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24—well below the threshold, as these great quakes occur roughly once per decade on average. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports no VEI ≥6 eruptions, with activity limited to smaller events like Kīlauea and Mayon. No 10kt+ meteor airbursts detected by NASA monitoring, and NOAA forecasts predict a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, with just 32% odds of any major (Category 3+) U.S. landfall, let alone Category 5 per Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak risks persist through November, with updated model ensembles expected soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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