With four Falcon 9 launches already notched in April—including a Starlink Group 17-21 from Vandenberg on the 11th and the milestone Cygnus NG-24 resupply from Cape Canaveral hours later—SpaceX's blistering dual-coast cadence has fueled trader optimism for 12-13 total missions (18.3% and 20% implied odds), yet ≤11 leads at 33.7% due to persistent delays plaguing dedicated flights like the TBD GPS III-10 and Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 amid FAA windows, weather risks, and pad constraints. Routine Starlink batches slated for April 14, 15, 18, and 22 could push toward 16+ (10.5%), but historical manifest slips differentiate conservative bets from high-volume upside plays in this high-stakes space race spectacle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤11 33.7%
12 26.6%
13 20%
15 11%
$36,242 Vol.
$36,242 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
≤11
34%
12
18%
13
20%
14
4%
15
11%
16
10%
17 or more
7%
≤11 33.7%
12 26.6%
13 20%
15 11%
$36,242 Vol.
$36,242 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
≤11
$351 Vol.
34%
12
$199 Vol.
18%
13
$6,091 Vol.
20%
14
$21,835 Vol.
4%
15
$215 Vol.
11%
16
$6,850 Vol.
10%
17 or more
$700 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.With four Falcon 9 launches already notched in April—including a Starlink Group 17-21 from Vandenberg on the 11th and the milestone Cygnus NG-24 resupply from Cape Canaveral hours later—SpaceX's blistering dual-coast cadence has fueled trader optimism for 12-13 total missions (18.3% and 20% implied odds), yet ≤11 leads at 33.7% due to persistent delays plaguing dedicated flights like the TBD GPS III-10 and Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 amid FAA windows, weather risks, and pad constraints. Routine Starlink batches slated for April 14, 15, 18, and 22 could push toward 16+ (10.5%), but historical manifest slips differentiate conservative bets from high-volume upside plays in this high-stakes space race spectacle.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$36,242End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.With four Falcon 9 launches already notched in April—including a Starlink Group 17-21 from Vandenberg on the 11th and the milestone Cygnus NG-24 resupply from Cape Canaveral hours later—SpaceX's blistering dual-coast cadence has fueled trader optimism for 12-13 total missions (18.3% and 20% implied odds), yet ≤11 leads at 33.7% due to persistent delays plaguing dedicated flights like the TBD GPS III-10 and Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 amid FAA windows, weather risks, and pad constraints. Routine Starlink batches slated for April 14, 15, 18, and 22 could push toward 16+ (10.5%), but historical manifest slips differentiate conservative bets from high-volume upside plays in this high-stakes space race spectacle.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$36,242End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With four Falcon 9 launches already notched in April—including a Starlink Group 17-21 from Vandenberg on the 11th and the milestone Cygnus NG-24 resupply from Cape Canaveral hours later—SpaceX's blistering dual-coast cadence has fueled trader optimism for 12-13 total missions (18.3% and 20% implied odds), yet ≤11 leads at 33.7% due to persistent delays plaguing dedicated flights like the TBD GPS III-10 and Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 amid FAA windows, weather risks, and pad constraints. Routine Starlink batches slated for April 14, 15, 18, and 22 could push toward 16+ (10.5%), but historical manifest slips differentiate conservative bets from high-volume upside plays in this high-stakes space race spectacle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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