Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such colossal events—historically several per century, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms, rapid caldera inflation, or escalating gas emissions at any monitored site. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, none exceeding VEI 4, while U.S. Geological Survey observatories report routine effusive activity at Kīlauea and others. Anticipated effusive flows at Axial Seamount later this year pose no explosive threat due to its basaltic composition. Weekly GVP reports and USGS alerts remain key for detecting unrest shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$40,687 Vol.
$40,687 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$40,687 Vol.
$40,687 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such colossal events—historically several per century, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms, rapid caldera inflation, or escalating gas emissions at any monitored site. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, none exceeding VEI 4, while U.S. Geological Survey observatories report routine effusive activity at Kīlauea and others. Anticipated effusive flows at Axial Seamount later this year pose no explosive threat due to its basaltic composition. Weekly GVP reports and USGS alerts remain key for detecting unrest shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$40,687End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such colossal events—historically several per century, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms, rapid caldera inflation, or escalating gas emissions at any monitored site. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, none exceeding VEI 4, while U.S. Geological Survey observatories report routine effusive activity at Kīlauea and others. Anticipated effusive flows at Axial Seamount later this year pose no explosive threat due to its basaltic composition. Weekly GVP reports and USGS alerts remain key for detecting unrest shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$40,687End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such colossal events—historically several per century, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the lack of precursors like prolonged seismic swarms, rapid caldera inflation, or escalating gas emissions at any monitored site. As of mid-April 2026, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program logs 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, none exceeding VEI 4, while U.S. Geological Survey observatories report routine effusive activity at Kīlauea and others. Anticipated effusive flows at Axial Seamount later this year pose no explosive threat due to its basaltic composition. Weekly GVP reports and USGS alerts remain key for detecting unrest shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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