Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid in deeply blue Maryland, where Democrats hold supermajorities and all statewide offices, anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Moore faces token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 primaries and boasts superior fundraising and endorsements, contrasting a fragmented, underfunded Republican field lacking a high-profile challenger after Larry Hogan declined. A fresh UMBC poll released April 1 revealed Moore's approval slipping to 48%—its lowest—amid voter frustration over high taxes, soaring utility bills, and a perceived wrong-track state direction, yet historical incumbency advantages and polling leads against generic Republicans sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary consolidation behind a strong nominee, a major scandal, or economic crisis eroding turnout in key Democratic strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,345 Vol.
$15,345 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
6%
$15,345 Vol.
$15,345 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$6,730 Vol.
94%
Republican
$8,615 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid in deeply blue Maryland, where Democrats hold supermajorities and all statewide offices, anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Moore faces token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 primaries and boasts superior fundraising and endorsements, contrasting a fragmented, underfunded Republican field lacking a high-profile challenger after Larry Hogan declined. A fresh UMBC poll released April 1 revealed Moore's approval slipping to 48%—its lowest—amid voter frustration over high taxes, soaring utility bills, and a perceived wrong-track state direction, yet historical incumbency advantages and polling leads against generic Republicans sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary consolidation behind a strong nominee, a major scandal, or economic crisis eroding turnout in key Democratic strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$15,345End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid in deeply blue Maryland, where Democrats hold supermajorities and all statewide offices, anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Moore faces token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 primaries and boasts superior fundraising and endorsements, contrasting a fragmented, underfunded Republican field lacking a high-profile challenger after Larry Hogan declined. A fresh UMBC poll released April 1 revealed Moore's approval slipping to 48%—its lowest—amid voter frustration over high taxes, soaring utility bills, and a perceived wrong-track state direction, yet historical incumbency advantages and polling leads against generic Republicans sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary consolidation behind a strong nominee, a major scandal, or economic crisis eroding turnout in key Democratic strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$15,345End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection bid in deeply blue Maryland, where Democrats hold supermajorities and all statewide offices, anchors trader consensus at 93.8% for a Democratic win on November 3, 2026. Moore faces token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 primaries and boasts superior fundraising and endorsements, contrasting a fragmented, underfunded Republican field lacking a high-profile challenger after Larry Hogan declined. A fresh UMBC poll released April 1 revealed Moore's approval slipping to 48%—its lowest—amid voter frustration over high taxes, soaring utility bills, and a perceived wrong-track state direction, yet historical incumbency advantages and polling leads against generic Republicans sustain the lopsided odds. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary consolidation behind a strong nominee, a major scandal, or economic crisis eroding turnout in key Democratic strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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