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Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

Market icon
Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 50%

1.5–2.0% 13.4%

2.0–2.5% 11%

<0.5% 10.3%

Polymarket

$26,576 Vol.

>2.5% 50%

1.5–2.0% 13.4%

2.0–2.5% 11%

<0.5% 10.3%

Polymarket

$26,576 Vol.

<0.5%

$3,701 Vol.

10%

0.5–1.0%

$15,045 Vol.

6%

1.0–1.5%

$1,459 Vol.

8%

1.5–2.0%

$1,247 Vol.

13%

2.0–2.5%

$1,338 Vol.

11%

>2.5%

$3,785 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, closely tracking the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (Q4/Q4 basis, central tendency 2.2–2.5%) and Philadelphia Fed survey median of 2.5% for the full year. This positioning reflects anticipated rebound from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% annualized growth—third estimate released April 9, dragged by investment declines amid prior government shutdown effects—bolstered by fiscal stimulus tailwinds and stable labor conditions. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 2026 at 1.3%, tempering early-year momentum, while lower bins like <0.5% (10.3%) price out recession risks amid resilient consumer spending. Upcoming Q1 advance estimate on April 30 looms as pivotal.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,576
End Date
Jan 29, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, closely tracking the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (Q4/Q4 basis, central tendency 2.2–2.5%) and Philadelphia Fed survey median of 2.5% for the full year. This positioning reflects anticipated rebound from Q4 2025's sluggish 0.5% annualized growth—third estimate released April 9, dragged by investment declines amid prior government shutdown effects—bolstered by fiscal stimulus tailwinds and stable labor conditions. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 2026 at 1.3%, tempering early-year momentum, while lower bins like <0.5% (10.3%) price out recession risks amid resilient consumer spending. Upcoming Q1 advance estimate on April 30 looms as pivotal.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,576
End Date
Jan 29, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Related

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Negative GDP growth in 2026?

11%
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US recession by end of 2026?

32%
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Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?

27%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"GDP growth in 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">2.5%" at 50%, followed by "1.5–2.0%" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "GDP growth in 2026" has generated $26.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "GDP growth in 2026," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "GDP growth in 2026" is ">2.5%" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.5–2.0%" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "GDP growth in 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.