Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stated on April 10 that peace talks with Russia show progress, with both sides converging on acceptable limits and recognizing the war's unsustainability, potentially leading to a settlement soon. However, Russian officials downplayed advances, highlighting deadlocks over territory cessions and security guarantees, while a Putin-declared Orthodox Easter ceasefire faltered amid mutual accusations of drone strikes and attacks. Ongoing Russian frontline gains in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Prisoner exchanges provided minor goodwill, but these dynamics underpin trader consensus at 72% against a comprehensive peace deal before 2027, as core disputes and trust deficits loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$199,737 Vol.
$199,737 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$199,737 Vol.
$199,737 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stated on April 10 that peace talks with Russia show progress, with both sides converging on acceptable limits and recognizing the war's unsustainability, potentially leading to a settlement soon. However, Russian officials downplayed advances, highlighting deadlocks over territory cessions and security guarantees, while a Putin-declared Orthodox Easter ceasefire faltered amid mutual accusations of drone strikes and attacks. Ongoing Russian frontline gains in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Prisoner exchanges provided minor goodwill, but these dynamics underpin trader consensus at 72% against a comprehensive peace deal before 2027, as core disputes and trust deficits loom large.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$199,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stated on April 10 that peace talks with Russia show progress, with both sides converging on acceptable limits and recognizing the war's unsustainability, potentially leading to a settlement soon. However, Russian officials downplayed advances, highlighting deadlocks over territory cessions and security guarantees, while a Putin-declared Orthodox Easter ceasefire faltered amid mutual accusations of drone strikes and attacks. Ongoing Russian frontline gains in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Prisoner exchanges provided minor goodwill, but these dynamics underpin trader consensus at 72% against a comprehensive peace deal before 2027, as core disputes and trust deficits loom large.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$199,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stated on April 10 that peace talks with Russia show progress, with both sides converging on acceptable limits and recognizing the war's unsustainability, potentially leading to a settlement soon. However, Russian officials downplayed advances, highlighting deadlocks over territory cessions and security guarantees, while a Putin-declared Orthodox Easter ceasefire faltered amid mutual accusations of drone strikes and attacks. Ongoing Russian frontline gains in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Prisoner exchanges provided minor goodwill, but these dynamics underpin trader consensus at 72% against a comprehensive peace deal before 2027, as core disputes and trust deficits loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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