Polymarket traders show closely contested implied probabilities for South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% edging >5.0% at 25.1%, reflecting split sentiment between the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) baseline 3.7% forecast and heightened upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—hitting the 3% target—driven by fuel’s -10.1% annual drop and food inflation slowing to 3.7%, but SARB’s March Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 6.75% amid projections of a Q2 rebound to 4.0% from fuel inflation exceeding 18% on higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel). Key differentiators include Middle East tensions risking oil spikes and rand depreciation (nominal effective rate up 6.0%), versus benign core CPI at 3.4%; watch March CPI release on April 22 for directional cues ahead of May MPC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
4.7-5.0% 43%
>5.0% 27.7%
4.1-4.4% 25%
2.9-3.2% 23.9%
$21,016 Vol.
$21,016 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
3%
2.6-2.9%
9%
2.9-3.2%
24%
3.2-3.5%
19%
3.5-3.8%
16%
3.8-4.1%
19%
4.1-4.4%
21%
4.4-4.7%
17%
4.7-5.0%
26%
>5.0%
28%
4.7-5.0% 43%
>5.0% 27.7%
4.1-4.4% 25%
2.9-3.2% 23.9%
$21,016 Vol.
$21,016 Vol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
$240 Vol.
3%
2.6-2.9%
$270 Vol.
9%
2.9-3.2%
$350 Vol.
24%
3.2-3.5%
$299 Vol.
19%
3.5-3.8%
$450 Vol.
16%
3.8-4.1%
$655 Vol.
19%
4.1-4.4%
$488 Vol.
21%
4.4-4.7%
$12,089 Vol.
17%
4.7-5.0%
$351 Vol.
26%
>5.0%
$5,825 Vol.
28%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders show closely contested implied probabilities for South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% edging >5.0% at 25.1%, reflecting split sentiment between the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) baseline 3.7% forecast and heightened upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—hitting the 3% target—driven by fuel’s -10.1% annual drop and food inflation slowing to 3.7%, but SARB’s March Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 6.75% amid projections of a Q2 rebound to 4.0% from fuel inflation exceeding 18% on higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel). Key differentiators include Middle East tensions risking oil spikes and rand depreciation (nominal effective rate up 6.0%), versus benign core CPI at 3.4%; watch March CPI release on April 22 for directional cues ahead of May MPC.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$21,016End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders show closely contested implied probabilities for South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% edging >5.0% at 25.1%, reflecting split sentiment between the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) baseline 3.7% forecast and heightened upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—hitting the 3% target—driven by fuel’s -10.1% annual drop and food inflation slowing to 3.7%, but SARB’s March Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 6.75% amid projections of a Q2 rebound to 4.0% from fuel inflation exceeding 18% on higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel). Key differentiators include Middle East tensions risking oil spikes and rand depreciation (nominal effective rate up 6.0%), versus benign core CPI at 3.4%; watch March CPI release on April 22 for directional cues ahead of May MPC.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$21,016End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show closely contested implied probabilities for South Africa’s 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 4.7-5.0% at 25.5% edging >5.0% at 25.1%, reflecting split sentiment between the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) baseline 3.7% forecast and heightened upside risks. February 2026 headline CPI eased to 3.0%—hitting the 3% target—driven by fuel’s -10.1% annual drop and food inflation slowing to 3.7%, but SARB’s March Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 6.75% amid projections of a Q2 rebound to 4.0% from fuel inflation exceeding 18% on higher Brent crude assumptions ($78/barrel). Key differentiators include Middle East tensions risking oil spikes and rand depreciation (nominal effective rate up 6.0%), versus benign core CPI at 3.4%; watch March CPI release on April 22 for directional cues ahead of May MPC.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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