Trader consensus prices "No" at 98% implied probability for Putin and Zelenskyy shaking hands by June 30, reflecting entrenched hostilities and stalled diplomacy despite U.S. pressure for a June peace deal. Recent mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter truce, which expired April 13 amid over 2,000 reported breaches and ongoing drone strikes, highlight persistent de-escalation failures. February's U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Geneva yielded no breakthroughs on core issues like territory, with Zelenskyy decrying Russian delays. Absent major concessions, direct leader-level diplomacy remains improbable, though a sudden ceasefire, summit invitation, or external mediation could marginally shift odds before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFor the handshake to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, there must be video or photographic evidence.
The resolution source for this market will be photographic or digital evidence verified by a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the handshake to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, there must be video or photographic evidence.
The resolution source for this market will be photographic or digital evidence verified by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98% implied probability for Putin and Zelenskyy shaking hands by June 30, reflecting entrenched hostilities and stalled diplomacy despite U.S. pressure for a June peace deal. Recent mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter truce, which expired April 13 amid over 2,000 reported breaches and ongoing drone strikes, highlight persistent de-escalation failures. February's U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Geneva yielded no breakthroughs on core issues like territory, with Zelenskyy decrying Russian delays. Absent major concessions, direct leader-level diplomacy remains improbable, though a sudden ceasefire, summit invitation, or external mediation could marginally shift odds before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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