Trader consensus on Polymarket favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at a 57% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of April 13 and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the main development region, combined with strong vertical wind shear from a transitioning ENSO pattern—weak La Niña fading toward El Niño—mirror conditions in recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk released April 8-10. Historically, pre-June 1 named storms (requiring sustained winds over 39 mph) have occurred in fewer than 10% of seasons since 1851, reinforcing the edge despite ~6 weeks remaining; daily NHC updates post-May 15 could shift odds if disturbances emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$330,441 Vol.
$330,441 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$330,441 Vol.
$330,441 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at a 57% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of April 13 and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the main development region, combined with strong vertical wind shear from a transitioning ENSO pattern—weak La Niña fading toward El Niño—mirror conditions in recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk released April 8-10. Historically, pre-June 1 named storms (requiring sustained winds over 39 mph) have occurred in fewer than 10% of seasons since 1851, reinforcing the edge despite ~6 weeks remaining; daily NHC updates post-May 15 could shift odds if disturbances emerge.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$330,441End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at a 57% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of April 13 and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the main development region, combined with strong vertical wind shear from a transitioning ENSO pattern—weak La Niña fading toward El Niño—mirror conditions in recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk released April 8-10. Historically, pre-June 1 named storms (requiring sustained winds over 39 mph) have occurred in fewer than 10% of seasons since 1851, reinforcing the edge despite ~6 weeks remaining; daily NHC updates post-May 15 could shift odds if disturbances emerge.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$330,441End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at a 57% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of April 13 and routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures in the main development region, combined with strong vertical wind shear from a transitioning ENSO pattern—weak La Niña fading toward El Niño—mirror conditions in recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk released April 8-10. Historically, pre-June 1 named storms (requiring sustained winds over 39 mph) have occurred in fewer than 10% of seasons since 1851, reinforcing the edge despite ~6 weeks remaining; daily NHC updates post-May 15 could shift odds if disturbances emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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