Despite heightened political pressure from the Banco Master scandal—revealing alleged financial ties between collapsed bank executives and relatives of STF ministers like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli—traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no justice facing impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers. Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 monocratic ruling limits initiation to the Procurador-Geral da República (PGR) alone, stalling over a dozen Senate requests filed this year, including recent ones against Flávio Dino and Moraes. Current Senate lacks the two-thirds majority (54 votes) needed for conviction, with STF suspending related CPIs amid 2026 election-year posturing; any shift awaits post-October balloting and new congressional seating in early 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$58,125 Vol.
$58,125 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$58,125 Vol.
$58,125 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite heightened political pressure from the Banco Master scandal—revealing alleged financial ties between collapsed bank executives and relatives of STF ministers like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli—traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no justice facing impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers. Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 monocratic ruling limits initiation to the Procurador-Geral da República (PGR) alone, stalling over a dozen Senate requests filed this year, including recent ones against Flávio Dino and Moraes. Current Senate lacks the two-thirds majority (54 votes) needed for conviction, with STF suspending related CPIs amid 2026 election-year posturing; any shift awaits post-October balloting and new congressional seating in early 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$58,125End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite heightened political pressure from the Banco Master scandal—revealing alleged financial ties between collapsed bank executives and relatives of STF ministers like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli—traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no justice facing impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers. Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 monocratic ruling limits initiation to the Procurador-Geral da República (PGR) alone, stalling over a dozen Senate requests filed this year, including recent ones against Flávio Dino and Moraes. Current Senate lacks the two-thirds majority (54 votes) needed for conviction, with STF suspending related CPIs amid 2026 election-year posturing; any shift awaits post-October balloting and new congressional seating in early 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$58,125End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite heightened political pressure from the Banco Master scandal—revealing alleged financial ties between collapsed bank executives and relatives of STF ministers like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli—traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to no justice facing impeachment before 2027, reflecting steep institutional barriers. Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 monocratic ruling limits initiation to the Procurador-Geral da República (PGR) alone, stalling over a dozen Senate requests filed this year, including recent ones against Flávio Dino and Moraes. Current Senate lacks the two-thirds majority (54 votes) needed for conviction, with STF suspending related CPIs amid 2026 election-year posturing; any shift awaits post-October balloting and new congressional seating in early 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
63%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
38%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions