Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires mid-May 2026, but he plans to remain in his role until successor Kevin Warsh receives Senate confirmation, complicating President Trump's push for new leadership amid a DOJ criminal probe into Powell's congressional testimony on Fed headquarters renovation costs. Recent judicial setbacks, including a federal judge upholding the block on subpoenas to Powell on April 3, have stalled the investigation led by Trump ally U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, prompting reports that administration officials view dropping the probe as essential for Warsh's nomination to advance. GOP Senator Thom Tillis has conditioned his support on ending the inquiry, reflecting bipartisan concerns over Fed independence, with traders anticipating resolution pressure by late spring or early summer as confirmation hearings loom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump drops Powell investigation by…?
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$12,044 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
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June 30
66%
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April 30
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66%
Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires mid-May 2026, but he plans to remain in his role until successor Kevin Warsh receives Senate confirmation, complicating President Trump's push for new leadership amid a DOJ criminal probe into Powell's congressional testimony on Fed headquarters renovation costs. Recent judicial setbacks, including a federal judge upholding the block on subpoenas to Powell on April 3, have stalled the investigation led by Trump ally U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, prompting reports that administration officials view dropping the probe as essential for Warsh's nomination to advance. GOP Senator Thom Tillis has conditioned his support on ending the inquiry, reflecting bipartisan concerns over Fed independence, with traders anticipating resolution pressure by late spring or early summer as confirmation hearings loom.
Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$12,044End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires mid-May 2026, but he plans to remain in his role until successor Kevin Warsh receives Senate confirmation, complicating President Trump's push for new leadership amid a DOJ criminal probe into Powell's congressional testimony on Fed headquarters renovation costs. Recent judicial setbacks, including a federal judge upholding the block on subpoenas to Powell on April 3, have stalled the investigation led by Trump ally U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, prompting reports that administration officials view dropping the probe as essential for Warsh's nomination to advance. GOP Senator Thom Tillis has conditioned his support on ending the inquiry, reflecting bipartisan concerns over Fed independence, with traders anticipating resolution pressure by late spring or early summer as confirmation hearings loom.
Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,044End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term expires mid-May 2026, but he plans to remain in his role until successor Kevin Warsh receives Senate confirmation, complicating President Trump's push for new leadership amid a DOJ criminal probe into Powell's congressional testimony on Fed headquarters renovation costs. Recent judicial setbacks, including a federal judge upholding the block on subpoenas to Powell on April 3, have stalled the investigation led by Trump ally U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, prompting reports that administration officials view dropping the probe as essential for Warsh's nomination to advance. GOP Senator Thom Tillis has conditioned his support on ending the inquiry, reflecting bipartisan concerns over Fed independence, with traders anticipating resolution pressure by late spring or early summer as confirmation hearings loom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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