Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.4% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, reflecting entrenched Russian occupation since the 2014 annexation, bolstered by layered fortifications, Black Sea Fleet presence, and overland supply routes despite disruptions. Recent Ukrainian drone and missile strikes— including mid-March special operations hits on military facilities and early April attacks on the Kerch Bridge, ferries, and Lukoil terminals—have strained Russian logistics to the peninsula but yielded no ground advances, with frontlines remaining over 200 km distant in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors. Russian forces prioritize eastern offensives near Donetsk, making a southern breakthrough improbable in the 2.5-month window absent seismic shifts like massive Western arms surges, internal Kremlin collapse, or improbable diplomatic concessions. Prisoner exchanges and localized ceasefires underscore ongoing stalemate over escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$60,890 Vol.
$60,890 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$60,890 Vol.
$60,890 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.4% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, reflecting entrenched Russian occupation since the 2014 annexation, bolstered by layered fortifications, Black Sea Fleet presence, and overland supply routes despite disruptions. Recent Ukrainian drone and missile strikes— including mid-March special operations hits on military facilities and early April attacks on the Kerch Bridge, ferries, and Lukoil terminals—have strained Russian logistics to the peninsula but yielded no ground advances, with frontlines remaining over 200 km distant in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors. Russian forces prioritize eastern offensives near Donetsk, making a southern breakthrough improbable in the 2.5-month window absent seismic shifts like massive Western arms surges, internal Kremlin collapse, or improbable diplomatic concessions. Prisoner exchanges and localized ceasefires underscore ongoing stalemate over escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$60,890End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.4% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, reflecting entrenched Russian occupation since the 2014 annexation, bolstered by layered fortifications, Black Sea Fleet presence, and overland supply routes despite disruptions. Recent Ukrainian drone and missile strikes— including mid-March special operations hits on military facilities and early April attacks on the Kerch Bridge, ferries, and Lukoil terminals—have strained Russian logistics to the peninsula but yielded no ground advances, with frontlines remaining over 200 km distant in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors. Russian forces prioritize eastern offensives near Donetsk, making a southern breakthrough improbable in the 2.5-month window absent seismic shifts like massive Western arms surges, internal Kremlin collapse, or improbable diplomatic concessions. Prisoner exchanges and localized ceasefires underscore ongoing stalemate over escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$60,890End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.4% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, reflecting entrenched Russian occupation since the 2014 annexation, bolstered by layered fortifications, Black Sea Fleet presence, and overland supply routes despite disruptions. Recent Ukrainian drone and missile strikes— including mid-March special operations hits on military facilities and early April attacks on the Kerch Bridge, ferries, and Lukoil terminals—have strained Russian logistics to the peninsula but yielded no ground advances, with frontlines remaining over 200 km distant in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors. Russian forces prioritize eastern offensives near Donetsk, making a southern breakthrough improbable in the 2.5-month window absent seismic shifts like massive Western arms surges, internal Kremlin collapse, or improbable diplomatic concessions. Prisoner exchanges and localized ceasefires underscore ongoing stalemate over escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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