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Sports·Soccer

UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis

$426,479 Vol.

May 7, 2026
Polymarket

$426,479 Vol.

Polymarket

Arsenal

$53,260 Vol.

91%

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)

$111,070 Vol.

88%

Bayern München

$76,467 Vol.

85%

Atlético Madrid

$18,549 Vol.

74%

Barcelona

$33,123 Vol.

28%

Real Madrid

$39,457 Vol.

16%

Liverpool

$59,035 Vol.

13%

Sporting CP

$34,593 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With first-leg results from April 7-8 producing narrow margins—Arsenal's stoppage-time Kai Havertz goal securing a 1-0 win at Sporting CP, Bayern München's 2-1 victory at Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid's shock 2-0 away triumph over Barcelona, and Paris Saint-Germain's 2-0 home win against Liverpool—trader sentiment in the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal advancement market hinges on second-leg showdowns April 14-15. Liverpool and Barcelona face steep uphill battles at Anfield and Metropolitano to overturn two-goal deficits without the away goals rule, while Arsenal and Bayern hold slim edges heading into Emirates and Allianz Arena home legs. Key factors include Real Madrid's absences (Tchouaméni out, multiple players at suspension risk like Vinícius Júnior and Bellingham), high-stakes disciplinary tightropes across squads, recent domestic form slumps for English sides, and potential for extra time or penalties in these evenly poised knockout ties.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$426,479
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 1:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With first-leg results from April 7-8 producing narrow margins—Arsenal's stoppage-time Kai Havertz goal securing a 1-0 win at Sporting CP, Bayern München's 2-1 victory at Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid's shock 2-0 away triumph over Barcelona, and Paris Saint-Germain's 2-0 home win against Liverpool—trader sentiment in the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal advancement market hinges on second-leg showdowns April 14-15. Liverpool and Barcelona face steep uphill battles at Anfield and Metropolitano to overturn two-goal deficits without the away goals rule, while Arsenal and Bayern hold slim edges heading into Emirates and Allianz Arena home legs. Key factors include Real Madrid's absences (Tchouaméni out, multiple players at suspension risk like Vinícius Júnior and Bellingham), high-stakes disciplinary tightropes across squads, recent domestic form slumps for English sides, and potential for extra time or penalties in these evenly poised knockout ties.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$426,479
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 1:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Arsenal" at 91%, followed by "Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)" at 88%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis" has generated $426.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis" is "Arsenal" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)" at 88%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to semis" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.