Spain leads trader consensus at 17.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, following the conclusion of UEFA playoffs on March 31 that confirmed all major contenders' qualification without upsets among top seeds. Spain's edge stems from their unbeaten UEFA Group E dominance, including recent 2-0 wins over Georgia and 4-0 thrashing of Bulgaria, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri peaking in midfield control. France advanced solidly from Group D via a 2-1 against Iceland, powered by Kylian Mbappé's attack, though tighter margins expose backline frailties. England, Argentina, and Brazil lurk closely with deep squads, historical knockout pedigree, and Messi-era momentum, while the expanded 48-team format amplifies group stage volatility and path-to-final uncertainty, sustaining the bunched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 17.3%
France 16.1%
England 11.3%
Argentina 8.8%
$618,480,554 Vol.
$618,480,554 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Switzerland
1%
Mexico
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 17.3%
France 16.1%
England 11.3%
Argentina 8.8%
$618,480,554 Vol.
$618,480,554 Vol.
Spain
17%
France
16%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Switzerland
1%
Mexico
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 17.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, following the conclusion of UEFA playoffs on March 31 that confirmed all major contenders' qualification without upsets among top seeds. Spain's edge stems from their unbeaten UEFA Group E dominance, including recent 2-0 wins over Georgia and 4-0 thrashing of Bulgaria, building on Euro 2024 glory with Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri peaking in midfield control. France advanced solidly from Group D via a 2-1 against Iceland, powered by Kylian Mbappé's attack, though tighter margins expose backline frailties. England, Argentina, and Brazil lurk closely with deep squads, historical knockout pedigree, and Messi-era momentum, while the expanded 48-team format amplifies group stage volatility and path-to-final uncertainty, sustaining the bunched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions