Trader consensus favors No at 79.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) firm stance that short-term earthquake prediction remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics and lack of reliable precursors. No M8.0+ events have occurred in 2026 per USGS data, with recent near-misses—a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1—failing to escalate, consistent with historical global rates of roughly one M8+ annually. Ongoing monitoring of high-risk zones like Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% M8-9 chance over 30 years) shows no acute signals, though models acknowledge inherent uncertainty; next USGS updates could refine hazard assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$44,500 Vol.
$44,500 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$44,500 Vol.
$44,500 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors No at 79.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) firm stance that short-term earthquake prediction remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics and lack of reliable precursors. No M8.0+ events have occurred in 2026 per USGS data, with recent near-misses—a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1—failing to escalate, consistent with historical global rates of roughly one M8+ annually. Ongoing monitoring of high-risk zones like Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% M8-9 chance over 30 years) shows no acute signals, though models acknowledge inherent uncertainty; next USGS updates could refine hazard assessments.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$44,500End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors No at 79.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) firm stance that short-term earthquake prediction remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics and lack of reliable precursors. No M8.0+ events have occurred in 2026 per USGS data, with recent near-misses—a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1—failing to escalate, consistent with historical global rates of roughly one M8+ annually. Ongoing monitoring of high-risk zones like Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% M8-9 chance over 30 years) shows no acute signals, though models acknowledge inherent uncertainty; next USGS updates could refine hazard assessments.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$44,500End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors No at 79.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) firm stance that short-term earthquake prediction remains impossible due to complex fault dynamics and lack of reliable precursors. No M8.0+ events have occurred in 2026 per USGS data, with recent near-misses—a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1—failing to escalate, consistent with historical global rates of roughly one M8+ annually. Ongoing monitoring of high-risk zones like Japan's Nankai Trough (60-90% M8-9 chance over 30 years) shows no acute signals, though models acknowledge inherent uncertainty; next USGS updates could refine hazard assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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